期刊
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
卷 10, 期 86, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0418
关键词
public health; risk monitoring; raccoon rabies; modelling; data assimilation
资金
- National Institutes of Health [RO1-AI047498]
- RAPIDD of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
An efficient surveillance system is a crucial factor in identifying, monitoring and tackling outbreaks of infectious diseases. Scarcity of data and limited amounts of economic resources require a targeted effort from public health authorities. In this paper, we propose a mathematical method to identify areas where surveillance is critical and low reporting rates might leave epidemics undetected. Our approach combines the use of reference-based susceptible-exposed-infectious models and observed reporting data; We propose two different specifications, for constant and time-varying surveillance, respectively. Our case study is centred around the spread of the raccoon rabies epidemic in the state of New York, using data collected between 1990 and 2007. Both methods offer a feasible solution to analyse and identify areas of intervention.
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