Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Laura L. L. Pan, Douglas Kinnison, Qing Liang, Mian Chin, Michelle L. L. Santee, Johannes Flemming, Warren P. P. Smith, Shawn B. B. Honomichl, James F. F. Bresch, Leslie R. R. Lait, Yunqian Zhu, Simone Tilmes, Peter R. R. Colarco, Juying Warner, Adrien Vuvan, Cathy Clerbaux, Elliot L. L. Atlas, Paul A. A. Newman, Troy Thornberry, William J. J. Randel, Owen B. B. Toon
Summary: This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon as a chemical transport system using models and validates the results with airborne measurements. The research reveals that the anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere transports Asian boundary layer air masses to the Western Pacific. These transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture. However, different models often predict different concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Fucai Duan, Zhenqiu Zhang, Dianbing Liu, Qingfeng Shao, Kan Zhao, Yongjin Wang
Summary: By analyzing a stalagmite record from southwestern China, changes in Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation over the past 1350 years were characterized. Wet and dry climate periods were identified, along with an antiphase relationship with precipitation changes in northwestern China. The record also showed a correlation with atmospheric temperature change and provided evidence of temperature modulation on ASM precipitation with and without human-induced forcing.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chen-Se Wang, Zhi-Li Wang, Ya-Dong Lei, Hua Zhang, Hui-Zheng Che, Xiao-Ye Zhang
Summary: This study examines the impact of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on the East Asian summer monsoon and climate in eastern China using different emission inventories. The results show that the changes in aerosol emissions and the resulting temperature and precipitation changes in eastern China are opposite under the two inventories.
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chenxi Xu, S. -Y. Simon Wang, Krishna Borhara, Brendan Buckley, Ning Tan, Yaru Zhao, Wenling An, Masaki Sano, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhengtang Guo
Summary: This study reconstructed annual precipitation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) from 1588 to 2013 (1588 to 1999) to examine the relationship between ENSO and monsoon and how it has changed. The results showed that the ENSO-monsoon relationship has become stronger since 1850, indicating the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Climate model projections further suggested that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association and synchronize ASM and AusSM variations.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jun-Hyeok Son, Kyong-Hwan Seo
Summary: This study reveals the dynamical mechanism for the interannual variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation based on the topographically forced stationary Rossby wave theory and interannual variability of the upstream zonal wind speed. The variations in upstream wind speed play a crucial role in the position and evolution of the EASM rainband.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kimberlee Dube, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein
Summary: This study aims to understand the distribution of NO2, NO, and NOx in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) within the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) through satellite measurements. The observations show that NO2 levels are relatively low over the ASM during the summer months, while NO and NOx levels are elevated due to low ozone concentrations and cold temperatures. The results are in reasonable agreement with simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kairan Ying, Dabang Jiang, Xiaogu Zheng, Carsten S. Frederiksen, Jing Peng, Tianbao Zhao, Linhao Zhong
Summary: Improvement in the seasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall remains a great challenge. A variance decomposition method is applied to identify the leading potentially predictable patterns of the rainfall, and additional predictors beyond known factors like El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are found to have significant impact on the rainfall. The considerable skill stemming from these additional predictors indicates their importance in the seasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xiaojing Li, Youmin Tang, Xunshu Song
Summary: The superiority of seamless prediction was assessed for Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, and significant advantages were found on time-scales ranging from a few days to a few weeks. Analysis of superior prediction accuracy for different lead times revealed that the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase played important roles in the prediction of ASM precipitation.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Yuanyuan Li, Xiaodong Liu, Xiaoxun Xie, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner
Summary: The understanding of the relationship between the variation of precipitation stable oxygen isotope ratio (618Op) and monsoon activity in the Asian monsoon region is crucial for an in-depth comprehension of the regional hydrological cycle processes and for reconstructing the history of Asian paleomonsoon changes. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the East Asian 618Op is negatively correlated with the Indian summer monsoon (IM) intensity while the Indian 618Op is positively correlated with the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPM) intensity. The underlying mechanisms linking the monsoon and 618Op vary in different regions.
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Xingchao Chen, L. Ruby Leung, Zhe Feng, Fengfei Song, Qiu Yang
Summary: The study found that MCSs play an important role in the rapid onset phase of the South Asian summer monsoon in terms of rainfall, MSE sources, and MSE export. While deep convection always leads to energy export, mesoscale organization of deep convection accelerates the energy cycle of the monsoon onset.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sarah M. McGrath, Steven C. Clemens, Yongsong Huang, Masanobu Yamamoto
Summary: The orbital-scale monsoon variability in India is not a direct response to northern hemisphere summer insolation, but rather reflects changes in moisture source and transport paths associated with changes in greenhouse gases and ice volume. The responses of Indian and East Asian monsoon systems at orbital scale are uncoupled and are driven by different forcings.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yuhei Takaya, Yu Kosaka, Masahiro Watanabe, Shuhei Maeda
Summary: The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Using a large ensemble hindcast experiment, researchers demonstrate that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead by successfully simulating El Nino-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing subsequent atmosphere-ocean responses in the Indian Ocean-western North Pacific.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Juergen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: A deeper understanding of the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for improving subseasonal forecasting of extreme precipitation events. Using a complex network approach, two dominant synchronization pathways and associated atmospheric circulation patterns between ISM and EASM are identified. Additionally, certain phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation are found to influence the synchronization of extreme rainfall events between ISM and EASM.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yujia Liu, Wenmin Man, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) plays a significant role in the Asian climate system, impacting a large portion of the global population. The oxygen isotopes of speleothem calcite in China provide valuable insights into the historical changes of the monsoon. This study investigates the relationship between precipitation-weighted oxygen isotopes and various ASM indices, finding that the isotopes mainly reflect the intensity of the Indian summer monsoon and to some extent, the meridional wind component of the East Asian summer monsoon.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Ting Hua, Ninglian Wang, Jiahuimin Liu, Shiqiang Zhang, Qiaoyin Tan
Summary: This study investigates the contributions of external and local atmospheric moisture fluxes to the interannual variability of peak summer precipitation over the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (NFEASM). The results show that the variability of summer precipitation is mainly controlled by fluctuations in the external atmospheric moisture fluxes, particularly by the moisture transport from the southwest.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Tamas Bodai, June-Yi Lee, Sundaresan Aneesh
Summary: Teleconnections are prominent features of internal variability, which can also undergo forced changes. Assessing these changes based on single realization observational data may be biased, with neglecting low-frequency variability being reasonable but omitting detrending potentially leading to larger biases. Nonlinear changes in teleconnection strength are suggested as the main irreducible source of nonergodicity.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Anila Rani Jo, June-Yi Lee, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Angeles Gallego
Summary: The amplification of future sea surface temperature seasonal cycle has important implications for marine ecosystems. The underlying physical mechanisms are found to be increasing upper ocean stratification and shoaling of the mixed layer. This finding provides valuable insight into future changes in marine ecosystems.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zhen Liu, Sun-Seon Lee, Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, June-Yi Lee, Lan Dai, Kyung-Ja Ha, Christian L. E. Franzke
Summary: Current climate models have biases in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon, reducing the reliability of monsoon projections under global warming. This study used a higher-resolution coupled climate model and found that simulations with increased CO2 levels better captured regional details and extremes of the monsoon. The results suggest an intensified monsoon response to CO2-induced warming.
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Dingrui Cao, Kang Xu, Qing-Lan Huang, Chi-Yung Tam, Sheng Chen, Zhuoqi He, Weiqiang Wang
Summary: South China experienced unprecedented extreme heat wave events in early summer 2020, which were primarily induced by abnormal tropospheric circulation and the displacement of western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia high. The warming of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature played a crucial role in these events.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kirsten L. Findell, Rowan Sutton, Nico Caltabiano, Anca Brookshaw, Patrick Heimbach, Masahide Kimoto, Scott Osprey, Doug Smith, James S. Risbey, Zhuo Wang, Lijing Cheng, Leandro B. Diaz, Markus G. Donat, Michael Ek, June-Yi Lee, Shoshiro Minobe, Matilde Rusticucci, Frederic Vitart, Lin Wang
Summary: The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) aims to use climate science to ensure a resilient and sustainable future. To achieve this, WCRP has created Lighthouse Activities to address pressing climate science challenges. The Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change aims to develop capabilities for understanding and predicting changes in the Earth system and providing early warnings. This article provides an overview of the scientific challenges, research, and activities needed to achieve this goal.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ying Lung Liu, Chi-Yung Tam, Hang Wai Tong, Kevin Cheung, Zhongfeng Xu
Summary: The Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4) was used to downscale outputs from four different general circulation models (GCM) to study changes in the hydrological cycle of Southern China. The study found increased interannual rainfall variability in periods of wetter boreal spring and summer. Additionally, extreme daily precipitation is projected to become more intense, while the number of consecutive dry days in autumn is expected to increase.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Wai-Pang Sze, Sze-Chai Tang, Chi-Chiu Cheung, Chi-Yung Tam
Summary: This study extends the MPAS-A model to support cell sizes down to 200 meters, allowing for more accurate predictions of ground temperature, humidity, and wind speed in the Hong Kong region. Furthermore, the results suggest that resolving terrain with ultra-high-resolution can better simulate the effects of wind at hill-tops and sheltering.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2022)
Editorial Material
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christian L. E. Franzke, June-Yi Lee, Terence O'Kane, William Merryfield, Xuebin Zhang
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jun-Young Park, Fabian Schloesser, Axel Timmermann, Dipayan Choudhury, June-Yi Lee, Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
Summary: Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been widely used to assess ice-sheet contributions to future global sea-level rise. However, these projections often neglect the bidirectional interactions between ice-sheets and climate. In this study, we conducted greenhouse warming simulations using a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model and found that the ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 are estimated to be 0.2 +/- 0.01, 0.5 +/- 0.01, and 1.4 +/- 0.1 m under different emission scenarios. These results highlight the importance of considering the complex interactions between ice-sheets, ocean, and atmosphere in future sea-level rise projections.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Pang-Chi Hsu, Jinhui Xie, June-Yi Lee, Zhiwei Zhu, Yan Li, Bin Chen, Shengjun Zhang
Summary: The rare extreme flooding event in Henan Province, China in July 2021 was caused by heavy and persistent rainfall, influenced by a strong moist southeasterly flow and moisture convergence. The event was a result of scale interactions between the monsoon mean field, intraseasonal oscillation, and synoptic disturbances. The two modes of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation played a crucial role in moisture convergence, along with synoptic-scale processes during the peak phase of the flooding event. Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models had limited skills in forecasting the event due to biases in representing the intraseasonal oscillation and multiscale interactions.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chenxi Hu, Chi-Yung Tam, Xinwei Li, Kangning Huang, Chao Ren, Kwun Yip Fung, Ziqian Wang
Summary: The impacts of near-future urban development and global warming forcing on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) were investigated. The results show that both climate change and rapid urban development have comparable positive effects on rainfall intensity and heavy rainfall probability over the GBA urban area. Global warming tends to increase heavy rainfall probability, but suppresses the probability of light rainfall. Urban development increases urban rainfall probability, with a significant increase in frequency for very heavy rainfall.
Article
Geography, Physical
Tongxin Han, Kang Xu, Lijuan Wang, Boqi Liu, Chi-Yung Tam, Kai Liu, Weiqiang Wang
Summary: The South China Sea experienced an exceptionally long-lived marine heatwave in summer 2020. This event was primarily influenced by the seasonal cycle and 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation. The combined effects of these factors led to the first warming peak in July, while the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation was responsible for the temperature increase during the decaying phase. The reduced latent heat flux played a major role in the second warming peak in September.
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chenxi Hu, Chi-Yung Tam, Chi Lok Loi, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Yubin Li, Zong-Liang Yang, Yee Man Au-Yeung, Xiaoyi Fang, Dev Niyogi
Summary: Urbanization has a significant impact on tropical cyclone rainfall, resulting in more intense rainfall over urban areas due to surface frictional convergence.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Young-Min Yang, Jeong-Hwan Kim, Jae-Heung Park, Yoo-Geun Ham, Soon-Il An, June-Yi Lee, Bin Wang
Summary: Over the past 50 years, the significant warming trend in the Western Pacific has led to an increasing trend in the magnitude and duration of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study investigates the predictability of MJO-related western Pacific precipitation on a multi-month time scale using deep learning methods. The results show that deep learning can extend the useful potential predictability of western Pacific precipitation up to 6-7 weeks, with a correlation coefficient skill ranging from 0.60 to 0.65.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Suzana J. Camargo, Hiroyuki Murakami, Nadia Bloemendaal, Savin S. Chand, Medha S. Deshpande, Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento, Juan Jesus Gonzaelez-Alemaen, Thomas R. Knutson, I. -i. Lin, Il-Ju Moon, Christina M. Patricola, Kevin A. Reed, Malcolm J. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Chi Yung (Francis) Tam, Elizabeth J. Wallace, Liguang Wu, Yohei Yamada, Wei Zhang, Haikun Zhao
Summary: Since IWTC-9 in 2018, numerous studies have been published to enhance our understanding of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the consistency of increased TC intensity and related hazards and risks due to human-induced climate change. New modeling and observational studies have indicated the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at both decadal and century scales. However, there are still significant uncertainties regarding model simulation of historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, as well as limitations in observed TC records. Furthermore, the projected future change in global TC numbers has become more uncertain since IWTC-9, partly due to projected increases in TC frequency by several climate models. The concept of TC seeds has been proposed, leading to ongoing debates on whether seeds can explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. Additionally, new studies have highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental factors, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions, on TC activity. Our report also introduces new focus topics, including TC translation speed and medicanes, for future projections. Recommendations and future research directions are provided to address remaining scientific questions and assist policymakers.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW
(2023)