A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

(2010) Neil R. Edwards et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

(2010) Ryan L. Sriver et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about ocean diapycnal mixing and projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

(2010) Marlos Goes et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

(2010) Richard H. Moss et al.   NATURE

Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model

(2010) Nathan M. Urban et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Parameter estimation for computationally intensive nonlinear regression with an application to climate modeling

(2009) Dorin Drignei et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

(2009) Philip B. Holden et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity

(2009) J. D. Annan et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity

(2009) Katsumasa Tanaka et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Using tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and climate-carbon cycle projections

(2009) Andreas Schmittner et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments

(2009) Jonathan Rougier et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Examples of Adaptive MCMC

(2009) Gareth O. Roberts et al.   JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND GRAPHICAL STATISTICS

Statistical calibration of climate system properties

(2009) Bruno Sansó et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

(2009) K. Zickfeld et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

(2008) Catia M. Domingues et al.   NATURE

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

(2008) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Geoscience

Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Can We Trust the Third Significant Figure?

(2008) James M. Flegal et al.   STATISTICAL SCIENCE