4.3 Article

Global climate response to anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects: Present day and year 2100

期刊

出版社

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2008JD011619

关键词

-

资金

  1. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) [NNX08AL85G]
  2. National Natural Science Foundation of China [90711004, 40775083]
  3. National Basic Research Program of China [2006CB403706]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Aerosol indirect effects (AIE) are a principal source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. The present study investigates the equilibrium response of the climate system to present-day and future AIE using the general circulation model (GCM), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) III. A diagnostic formulation correlating cloud droplet number concentration (N-c) with concentrations of aerosol soluble ions is developed as a basis for the calculation. Explicit dependence on Nc is introduced in the treatments of liquid-phase stratiform clouds in GISS III. The model is able to reproduce the general patterns of present-day cloud frequency, droplet size, and radiative balance observed by CloudSat, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. For perturbations of N-c from preindustrial to present day, a net AIE forcing of -1.67 W m(-2) is estimated, with a global mean surface cooling of 1.12 K, precipitation reduction of 3.36%, a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a hydrological sensitivity of + 3.00% K-1. For estimated perturbations of N-c from present day to year 2100, a net AIE forcing of -0.58 W m(-2), a surface cooling of 0.47 K, and a decrease in precipitation of 1.7% are predicted. Sensitivity calculations show that the assumption of a background minimum N-c value has more significant effects on AIE forcing in the future than on that in present day. When AIE-related processes are included in the GCM, a decrease in stratiform precipitation is predicted over future greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced warming scenario, as opposed to the predicted increase when only GHG and aerosol direct effects are considered.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.3
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

Article Geochemistry & Geophysics

A deep learning framework for analyzing cloud characteristics of aggregated convection using cloud-resolving model simulations

Yi-Chang Chen, Chien-Ming Wu, Wei-Ting Chen

Summary: This study introduces a framework to extract high-dimensional nonlinear relationships among state variables for aggregated convection using convolutional neural network models. By iterating the training process and eliminating features with provided physics explanations, explainable nonlinear relationships among variables can be provided. The study identified essential cloud characteristics and found a strong relationship between aggregation, cloud peripherals, and fractal dimensions. This framework provides a possibility to explore the high-dimensional relationship between the physics process with the assistance of CNN models.

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Observation-Based Index to Investigate the Role of the Lee Vortex in Enhancing Air Pollution over Northwestern Taiwan

Tzu Han Hsu Su, Wei Ting Chen, Chien Mingw Wu, Min-Ken Hsieh

Summary: This study quantifies the potential effect of lee vortex on the deterioration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Taiwan's complex topography, using observational data. The results show that under favorable weather conditions, the western region of Taiwan experiences a high occurrence of PM2.5 enhancement. The enhancement areas expand northward during consecutive lee vortex days, and their evolution is influenced by background winds, as demonstrated by numerical simulations.

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013-2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging

Lei Chen, Hong Liao, Jia Zhu, Ke Li, Yang Bai, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jianlin Hu, Meigen Zhang

Summary: This study systematically examines the historical and future changes in premature respiratory mortalities caused by ozone (O3) exposure in China and identifies the primary factors contributing to these changes. The historical assessment for 2013-2019 is based on gridded O3 concentrations, while the future prediction for 2019-2030 uses projected O3 concentrations under different scenarios. The study finds that the deterioration of O3 air quality is the main factor driving the increase in O3-mortality during 2013-2019, but population aging will become the leading cause of future O3-mortality rises from 2019 to 2030.

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Changes in PM2.5-related health burden in China's poverty and non-poverty areas during 2000-2020: A health inequality perspective

Yan Li, Baojie Li, Hong Liao, Bing-Bing Zhou, Jing Wei, Yuxia Wang, Yuzhu Zang, Yang Yang, Rui Liu, Xiaorui Wang

Summary: China's non-poverty-stricken areas have more severe PM2.5 pollution than poverty-stricken areas, leading to higher premature mortality. China's total PM2.5-related premature mortality is relatively evenly distributed across regions of different GDP per capita levels, but slightly increased from 2015 to 2020 due to the change in age structure. PM2.5-related premature deaths are more severe for populations of low socioeconomic status, and this environmental health inequality may be amplified by population aging. Migration from China's poverty-stricken areas to developed cities has contributed to a significant number of premature deaths.

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Stratospheric intrusion may aggravate widespread ozone pollution through both vertical and horizontal advections in eastern China during summer

Fengyi Chang, Jiandong Li, Nan Li, Hong Liao

Summary: We used the WRF-Chem model to simulate a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event in eastern China and investigate its impact on near-surface O3 pollution. The large-scale circulation of SI was characterized by a deep trough over central China, South Asia high, and Western Pacific Subtropical high. The results showed that SI contributed up to 6.5 ppb to the surface O3 concentration, mainly through horizontal advection. The study highlights the natural effect of SI on O3 pollution in eastern China and its implications for the development of an O3 pollution alert system.

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

A hybrid model for estimating the number concentration of ultrafine particles based on machine learning algorithms in central Taiwan

Chau-Ren Jung, Wei -Ting Chen, Li-Hao Young, Ta-Chih Hsiao

Summary: Modeling is a cost-effective measure to estimate ultrafine particle (UFP) levels. In this study, in-situ measurements and various data sources were used to develop a model for estimating the daily UFP levels at a high resolution. Three machine learning algorithms were used and the model showed good performance in validation tests.

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2023)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Identifying the Deep-Inflow Mixing Features in Orographically-Locked Diurnal Convection

Yu-Hung Chang, Wei-Ting Chen, Chien-Ming Wu, Yi-Hung Kuo, J. David Neelin

Summary: Orographically-locked diurnal convection involves interactions between local circulation and the thermodynamic environment of convection. Strong convective updraft columns within heavily precipitating, organized systems exhibit a mass flux profile gradually increasing with height through a deep lower-tropospheric inflow layer. Enhanced convective development is associated with higher upstream moist static energy (MSE) transport through this deep-inflow layer via local circulation, augmenting the rain rate by 36% in precipitation hotspots. These simulations provide practical guidance for targeted observations within the most common deep-inflow path. Preliminary field measurements support the presence of high MSE transport within the deep-inflow layer when organized convection occurs at the hotspot. Orographically-locked convection facilitates both modeling and field campaign design to examine the general properties of active deep convection.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2023)

Article Astronomy & Astrophysics

Effects of the Horizontal Scales of the Cloud-Resolving Model on Tropical Cyclones in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model

Kuan-Ting Kuo, Chien-Ming Wu, Wei-Ting Chen

Summary: In this study, the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) is used to simulate tropical cyclones using the hindcast approach. The results show that a smaller horizontal scale in the sub-grid cloud-resolving models can lead to overestimation of the number and intensity of tropical cyclones. The study highlights the importance of sub-grid configuration when estimating TC activities using SPCAM.

EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Radiatively Active Hydrometeor Frequencies From CloudSat-CALIPSO Data for Evaluating Cloud Fraction in Global Climate Models

Jui-Lin F. Li, Wei-Liang Lee, Kuan-Man Xu, Yu-Cian Tsai, Jonathan Jiang, Jia-Yuh Yu, Graeme Stephens, Eric Fetzer, Wei-Ting Chen

Summary: This study uses CloudSat-CALIPSO satellite data to evaluate the modeled cloud fraction in CMIP5 models during a recent historical period. The comparison reveals that most CMIP5 models do not account for precipitating and convective core hydrometeors, leading to significant underestimation of cloud fraction compared to satellite-retrieved data. The underestimation is particularly pronounced in certain regions and altitudes where precipitating ice and convective core hydrometeors play a major role.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate responses in China to domestic and foreign aerosol changes due to clean air actions during 2013-2019

Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Baojie Li, Jiandong Li, Jiangfeng Wei, Meng Gao, Hong Liao

Summary: This study investigates the fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The results show that both domestic and foreign aerosol changes contribute to the warming in China, with domestic emissions affecting primarily through rapid atmospheric adjustments and foreign aerosol changes influencing through slow oceanic processes. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes highlights the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation efforts.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Why is ozone in South Korea and the Seoul metropolitan area so high and increasing?

Nadia K. Colombi, Daniel J. Jacob, Laura Hyesung Yang, Shixian Zhai, Viral Shah, Stuart K. Grange, Robert M. Yantosca, Soontae Kim, Hong Liao

Summary: Despite efforts to decrease emissions, surface ozone pollution in South Korea has increased over the past 2 decades and consistently exceeds the air quality standard. A study of the trends in surface ozone and NO2 concentrations from 2015 to 2019 reveals an increase in ozone concentration in April-May and a decrease in NO2 concentration by 22%. Global atmospheric chemistry models can successfully simulate surface ozone and explain the emission-driven ozone trend in the Seoul metropolitan area.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Chao Liu, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Lili Ren, Jiangfeng Wei, Pinya Wang, Hong Liao

Summary: Since the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, aerosol emissions in East Asia have decreased significantly, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase, resulting in a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between the two regions. A study investigating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to these changes found that the reduction in East Asian emissions alone led to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a slight warming in summer. When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and the increases in South Asia, the ERF and warming over central-eastern China were further enhanced, while the rainfall decreased slightly. Overall, the study highlights the important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

Mengyun Li, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Huimin Li, Pinya Wang, Hong Liao

Summary: In recent years, the level of near-surface ozone (O3) in China has been increasing rapidly, leading to significant damage to human health and ecosystems. This study investigates the impact of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the interannual variations of summertime tropospheric O3 over China. The results show that QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O3 concentrations over central China under warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted bymachine learning with multi-source data

Huimin Li, Yang Yang, Jianbing Jin, Hailong Wang, Ke Li, Pinya Wang, Hong Liao

Summary: This study quantifies the impacts of future climate change on ozone (O3) pollution in Asia and predicts near-surface O3 concentrations from 2020 to 2100. The results show that under high-forcing scenarios, O3 concentrations will increase by 5%-20% in South China, Southeast Asia, and South India, and by less than 10% in North China and the Gangetic Plains. Furthermore, the study finds that summertime O3 pollution in eastern China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Composited analyses of the chemical and physical characteristics of co-polluted days by ozone and PM2.5 over 2013-2020 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Huibin Dai, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jia Zhu, Jianbing Jin, Baojie Li, Xingwen Jiang

Summary: Frequent co-polluted days by ozone and PM2.5 were observed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2013 to 2020. The chemical and physical characteristics of these days were different from those of single ozone or PM2.5 pollution, and they have significant implications for air quality management.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2023)

暂无数据