Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations

Real-time prediction of the arrival times at Earth of shocks is very important for space weather research. Recently, various models for shock propagation are used to forecast the shock arriving times (SATs) with information of initial coronal shock and flare from near real-time radio and X-ray data. In this paper, we add the use of solar energetic particles (SEP) observation to improve the shock arrival time (SAT) prediction. High-energy SEPs originating from flares move to the Earth much faster than the shocks related to the same flares. We develop an SAT prediction model by combining a well-known shock propagation model, STOA, and the analysis of SEPs detected at Earth. We demonstrate that the SAT predictions are improved by the new model with the help of 38-53 keV electron SEP observations. In particular, the correct prediction to false alarm ratio is improved significantly.