The relative contribution of short-term versus long-term effects in shrub-understory species interactions under arid conditions

Plant-plant interactions (competition and facilitation) in terrestrial ecosystems include: (1) short-term effects, primarily quantified with experimental removals; and (2) long-term effects, mostly due to soil weathering processes, primarily quantified with observational methods. It has been argued that these effects are likely to vary in contrasting directions with increasing drought stress in arid systems. However, few studies have used appropriate methodology to assess both types of effects and their variation across nurse species and environmental conditions, in particular in arid systems. This knowledge is crucial for predicting variation in the mediating role of facilitation with climate change and assessing the importance of nurse effects in ecological restoration. In the arid climate of central-south Tunisia, understory species' biomass, abundance and composition and soil parameters were compared in shrub-control, shrub-removed and open areas for three shrub species and in two habitats with contrasting soil moisture conditions. Long-term effects were dominant, positive for all three shrub species and associated with increasing nutrient content in shrub patches. Short-term effects, mainly related to water consumption, were weaker, mostly negative and dependent on shrub species. Additionally, long-term effects were less positive and short-term effects more negative in the dry habitat than in the wet habitat. Our study provides evidence of the primary influence of positive (facilitative) long-term effects in this arid system. However, the net effects of shrubs could be less beneficial for other species with increasing aridity under climate change, due to both a decrease in positive long-term effects and an increase in negative short-term effects.