Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Matilde Rusticucci, Natalia Zazulie
Summary: The analysis of temperature extreme indices in southern South America showed that the largest positive trends were observed in the tropical nights index, with a clear anthropogenic signal in the subtropical and Andes regions. Significant changes in Patagonia were attributed to anthropogenic forcing, while projected changes for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, particularly in warm nights indices.
ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. L. Harper, A. Cunsolo, A. Babujee, S. Coggins, E. De Jongh, T. Rusnak, C. J. Wright, M. Dominguez Aguilar
Summary: Since the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report in 2014, there has been significant advancement in climate change and health research in North America, particularly in the areas of climate change impacts, heat-related mortality and morbidity, and respiratory illness. However, research gaps still exist regarding the impacts of climate change on mental health, nutrition, and foodborne disease.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Giacomo Moraglia, Erika Brattich, Gregory Carbone
Summary: This study investigates trends in the pluviometric regime in North and South Carolina, USA using data from forty-four historical stations. The results show that most of the stations do not exhibit consistent, statistically significant trends in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity. However, a third of the stations show a significant increasing trend in the annual number of light rain days. These findings contribute to the understanding of trends in the southeastern United States and have implications for adaptation planning.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Miguel Lagos-Zuniga, Rocio Balmaceda-Huarte, Pedro Regoto, Limbert Torrez, Matias Olmo, Andre Lyra, David Pareja-Quispe, Maria Laura Bettolli
Summary: This study analyzed the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs) to reproduce historical extreme climate indices in South America (SA) and predicted future climate change. The results showed that the models exhibited better agreement in spatial variability than in inter-annual variability, and there were differences in precipitation signals between RCMs and their driving global climate models (GCMs).
Article
Environmental Sciences
Soledad Collazo, Mariana Barrucand, Matilde Rusticucci
Summary: The consequences of climate change have led to noticeable changes in extreme events worldwide. This study evaluates the ability of 33 CMIP6 models to simulate the observed trends of four extreme temperature indices in South America. The results show that the models struggle to accurately simulate temperature trends, especially for cold days.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Leandro B. Diaz, Ramiro I. Saurral, Carolina S. Vera
Summary: This study assesses the ability of a set of Global Climate Model simulations in reproducing the variability and change of austral summer precipitation observed in South America, indicating that models still have biases and uncertainties in representing the trends and variability of rainfall in the region. Further improvements are needed to reduce uncertainties associated with main climate change signals in the continent.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, Robin Chadwick
Summary: Research suggests that future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector will weaken, largely due to anomalous circulation changes over the North Pacific. The study also indicates that changes in forcing from equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more significant than changes in the global basic state background circulation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Isabel H. Smith, Paul D. Williams, Reinhard Schiemann
Summary: This study evaluates the changes in moderate clear-air turbulence (CAT) over the North Atlantic using CMIP6 models. The results show that there will be a significant increase in CAT frequency during autumn and summer, reaching the same turbulence intensity as winter and autumn in 1950 by 2050. For every 1 degrees C of global near-surface warming, autumn, winter, spring, and summer are projected to have an average of 14%, 9%, 9%, and 14% more moderate CAT, respectively. The aviation sector should be prepared for a more turbulent future.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi, Cameron C. Lee
Summary: By characterizing the boreal summer temperature variability patterns in North America, this study improves the understanding of circulation patterns associated with regional temperature trends. The analysis of gridded observational datasets and reanalysis data reveals significant trends in temperature variability patterns, indicating a shift towards the warm regime. Anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland/northeastern Canada and Alaska are linked to warm air advection and above-average temperatures, while cyclonic circulation over the northeast Pacific coast enhances warm air advection and temperature increases in the northwestern portion of North America. The increase in global mean temperatures is strongly associated with the long-term increase in the amplitude of atmospheric circulations associated with warm regimes in parts of North America. At the interannual time scale, temperature increase over Greenland/northeastern Canada is strongly influenced by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. These findings highlight the modulating effects of global temperature increase and warming of the western tropical Pacific Ocean on the increasing amplitude of circulations associated with warm regimes in North America. Additionally, the enhancement of anticyclonic circulations over the Arctic contributes to a significant reduction in sea ice extent.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Summary: Understanding the statistical properties of extreme weather events and their underlying physical processes is crucial for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated hazards. Recent studies have shown that large deviation theory (LDT) is useful for investigating persistent extreme events and estimating long return periods. In this study, we utilize LDT and a state-of-the-art Earth system model to analyze the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave. We find that the occurrence of the heatwave can be attributed to climate variability, but its probability is greatly amplified by ongoing climate change. We also examine the spatial coherence and the role of the Rocky Mountains in influencing extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rodrigo Andres Merino, Maria Isabel Gassmann
Summary: Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is used to measure the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and its impact on the water balance. In this study, ETo estimates for Argentina and southern South America over the last four decades were generated using the Penman-Monteith method. Positive trends in ETo were observed throughout Argentina, particularly in the central east side of the Andes Mountain range. These trends were mainly driven by increasing air temperature and decreasing dew point temperatures. Additionally, variations in net surface radiation and humidity also played a role in regional ETo changes.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xinyue Zhong, Tingjun Zhang, Shichang Kang, Jian Wang
Summary: This study evaluates snow depth simulations from CMIP6 models in high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observational data. The simulated snow depths show low accuracy and a bias towards higher values compared to the observations. While the models indicate an increase in precipitation, the observed snow depth trends during the cold season actually decrease. The findings highlight the need for caution when using and interpreting simulated changes in snow depth.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Sebastian G. Mutz, Johannes Aschauer
Summary: This study investigates the relationships between global-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of Andean glaciers. Four distinct glaciological zones are identified based on their climatic controls. Empirical glacier mass-balance models are trained to predict the short-term mass-balance of the glaciers.
JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Julia Mindlin, Carolina S. Vera, Theodore G. Shepherd, Marisol Osman
Summary: This article explores the response of summer rainfall in southeastern South America to greenhouse warming and identifies the combination of remote drivers that lead to extreme drying and wetting scenarios. The study also highlights the possibility of drying in southeastern South America and emphasizes the impact of regional box definition on the results.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anna Carolina Bazzanela, Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Pedro Regoto
Summary: This work evaluates the ability of 28 CMIP6 models to represent the South American climate during the reference period and finds that some models perform poorly in representing specific systems, with most models overestimating the intensity of the subtropical and polar jets.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Katelyn Zigner, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Charles Jones, Gert-Jan Duine
Summary: This study analyzed diurnal-to-seasonal wind cycles and extremes in Santa Barbara County, Southern California, and found that there are variations in wind speed cycles and percentiles among different stations. Strong winds recorded at buoys were significantly correlated with land stations, but no temporal lags were found between mountain stations and buoys. Fire weather conditions were most frequent at mountain stations in certain areas, with differences in temperature and dew point distributions during extreme winds between east and west mountain stations.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Deanna Nash, Leila M. Carvalho, Charles Jones, Qinghua Ding
Summary: This study characterizes different types of atmospheric rivers reaching High Mountain Asia and identifies three subtypes with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The findings reveal the importance of these ARs in contributing to winter and spring precipitation in the region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Gert-Jan Duine, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Charles Jones
Summary: This study investigates the mesoscale mechanisms behind two extreme heatwaves in Santa Barbara County and explores their implications for severe fire weather. The findings suggest that mountain wave activity and temperature anomalies contribute to the occurrence of extreme heat and increased fire danger.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wendell M. B. Fialho, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Manoel A. Gan, Sandro F. Veiga
Summary: The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is a crucial component of the South American Monsoon System, regulating precipitation for millions of people in South America. This study investigates the mechanisms behind persistent SACZ events, which often result in floods and landslides. The researchers find that these events are preceded by a semi-stationary midlatitude Rossby wave train and cyclonic anomalies over the western South Atlantic, which strengthen the low-level westerlies and enhance moisture transport over land, causing the SACZ to intensify and remain active for long periods.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ye Mu, Trent W. Biggs, Charles Jones
Summary: Water distribution in the Brazilian Amazon during the dry season and its impact on agriculture has not been well studied. This research examines the moisture sources for dry season rainfall in the state of Rondonia, Brazil, and identifies the influence of synoptic circulation patterns. Ocean evaporation contributes to the majority of dry season precipitation, but during drought years, changes in synoptic circulation reduce the moisture transport into Rondonia, affecting the water supply for agriculture.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Charles Jones, Ye Mu, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Qinghua Ding
Summary: This study investigates the variability of northerly low-level jets (LLJ) along the eastern Andes in South America. Four distinct types of LLJ are identified, with specific evolutions and forcings from Rossby wave trains and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The occurrence of each LLJ type varies in El Nino and La Nina years. The persistence of precipitation is directly related to the persistence of LLJ. The findings highlight the importance of LLJ in modulating precipitation patterns in South America.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Callum F. Thompson, Charles Jones, Leila Carvalho, Anna T. Trugman, Donald D. Lucas, Daisuke Seto, Kevin Varga
Summary: This article examines the changing trends of surface winds in California during autumn. The study finds a significant increase in easterly winds at night on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The findings suggest that this trend may be driven by elevated warming gradients between California and the interior continent.
Article
Ecology
Katelyn Zigner, Leila M. Carvalho, Charles Jones, John Benoit, Gert-Jan Duine, Dar Roberts, Francis Fujioka, Max Moritz, Nic Elmquist, Rob Hazard
Summary: The main objective of this study is to provide a spatial analysis of regions at high risk of fast wildfire spread in coastal Santa Barbara, particularly in the first two hours. Multiple wildfire simulations were conducted using three ignition modeling methods and three wind scenarios. The results showed that the simulated wildfires were more likely to occur near major-exit highways, but did not spread far from the ignition locations.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Corrie Monteverde, Fernando De Sales, Charles Jones
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of different models in simulating precipitation patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. It finds that the models tend to underestimate rainfall in the northern region and accurately simulate rainfall in the southern region. The models struggle to capture extreme precipitation values but are able to capture the dominant mode of variability. CESM2, MIROC6, MRIESM20, SAMOUNICON, and the ensemble mean perform best in all evaluation metrics.
Article
Ecology
Kevin Varga, Charles Jones, Anna Trugman, Leila M. Carvalho, Neal McLoughlin, Daisuke Seto, Callum Thompson, Kristofer Daum
Summary: Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent in the western United States. Understanding the behavior of megafires in a warming world is crucial. The simulation using Prometheus model showed that high temperatures, low humidity, and southerly winds contribute to extreme fire spread. Aridity and fuel moisture content have the greatest impact on fire growth and heat release.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Jennifer K. Balch, Rebecca T. Barnes, Philip E. Higuera, Christopher I. Roos, Dylan W. Schwilk, E. Natasha Stavros, Tirtha Banerjee, Megan M. Bela, Jacob Bendix, Sandro Bertolino, Solomon Bililign, Kevin D. Bladon, Paulo Brando, Robert E. Breidenthal, Brian Buma, Donna Calhoun, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Megan E. Cattau, Kaelin M. Cawley, Sudeep Chandra, Melissa L. Chipman, Jeanette Cobian-Iniguez, Erin Conlisk, Jonathan D. Coop, Alison Cullen, Kimberley T. Davis, Archana Dayalu, Fernando De Sales, Megan Dolman, Lisa M. Ellsworth, Scott Franklin, Christopher H. Guiterman, Matthew Hamilton, Erin J. Hanan, Winslow D. Hansen, Stijn Hantson, Brian J. Harvey, Andres Holz, Tao Huang, Matthew D. Hurteau, Nayani T. Ilangakoon, Megan Jennings, Charles Jones, Anna Klimaszewski-Patterson, Leda N. Kobziar, John Kominoski, Branko Kosovic, Meg A. Krawchuk, Paul Laris, Jackson Leonard, S. Marcela Loria-Salazar, Melissa Lucash, Hussam Mahmoud, Ellis Margolis, Toby Maxwell, Jessica L. McCarty, David B. McWethy, Rachel S. Meyer, Jessica R. Miesel, W. Keith Moser, R. Chelsea Nagy, Dev Niyogi, Hannah M. Palmer, Adam Pellegrini, Benjamin Poulter, Kevin Robertson, Adrian V. Rocha, Mojtaba Sadegh, Fernanda Santos, Facundo Scordo, Joseph O. Sexton, A. Surjalal Sharma, Alistair M. S. Smith, Amber J. Soja, Christopher Still, Tyson Swetnam, Alexandra D. Syphard, Morgan W. Tingley, Ali Tohidi, Anna T. Trugman, Merritt Turetsky, J. Morgan Varner, Yuhang Wang, Thea Whitman, Stephanie Yelenik, Xuan Zhang
Summary: Fire is a crucial element in ecosystems globally, but altered fire regimes due to global change are causing devastating impacts. Addressing the increasing fire danger requires interdisciplinary and inclusive partnerships, as well as integration of diverse knowledge and data for more predictive and adaptive approaches.
Article
Ecology
Daisuke Seto, Charles Jones, Anna T. Trugman, Kevin Varga, Andrew J. Plantinga, Leila M. Carvalho, Callum Thompson, Jacob Gellman, Kristofer Daum
Summary: This study examines the effectiveness of WUI fuel breaks under strong winds and dry fuel conditions using the 2018 Camp Fire as a case study. It finds that WUI fuel breaks can slow down wildfire spread rates by dispersing the fire front, but the width of the fuel breaks is crucial.
