Article
Environmental Sciences
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Paul R. Holland, Jan De Rydt
Summary: Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is the main process controlling Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise. Rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely to continue throughout the 21st century, leading to increased ice-shelf melting and potential collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, despite efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Meng Wei, Zhenya Song, Qi Shu, Xiaodan Yang, Yajuan Song, Fangli Qiao
Summary: There have been heated debates regarding the existence of global warming slowdown during the early twenty-first century. Extensive research using temperature datasets suggests that while there is controversy over the existence of the slowdown, the probability of slowdown events is significantly higher in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. This research partially reconciles the controversy and shows the compatibility between the decadal-scale slowdown and the centennial-scale anthropogenic warming trend.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Romain Hugonnet, Robert McNabb, Etienne Berthier, Brian Menounos, Christopher Nuth, Luc Girod, Daniel Farinotti, Matthias Huss, Ines Dussaillant, Fanny Brun, Andreas Kaab
Summary: The study found that glaciers around the world are melting at an accelerated rate, with contrasting patterns of mass loss in different geographical regions. Overall, glaciers are losing mass more rapidly, with similar or even larger acceleration rates than Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately. These findings also highlight the importance of understanding drivers that influence glacier change to predict future changes and mitigate the impacts of sea-level rise.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Maximilian Kotz, Leonie Wenz, Anders Levermann
Summary: Changes in climate conditions, influenced by anthropogenic global warming, will have profound impacts on natural and societal systems. Variability in daily surface temperature is found to change with distinct global patterns as greenhouse gas concentrations increase. The changes in daily temperature variability are attributed to enhanced greenhouse forcing and are expected to have uneven effects on societies, economies, and ecosystems in the future.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Janaka Bamunawala, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, Robert J. Nicholls, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Trang Minh Duong, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Ad van der Spek
Summary: This study presents projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets worldwide using a novel probabilistic, system-based model. It shows that under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates in 90% of cases over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, some systems are projected to accrete, highlighting the diverse responses of inlet-interrupted coasts to different influencing factors.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
David Marcolino Nielsen, Patrick Pieper, Armineh Barkhordarian, Paul Overduin, Tatiana Ilyina, Victor Brovkin, Johanna Baehr, Mikhail Dobrynin
Summary: Coastal erosion in the Arctic caused by permafrost thaw and wave abrasion is expected to increase significantly due to global warming. Projections indicate that the erosion rate will exceed historical levels before the end of the century. This research has important implications for policymakers in terms of coastal conservation and socioeconomic planning, as well as for understanding the impact of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean and its role as a carbon sink.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Quentin Dalaiden, Andrew P. Schurer, Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Hugues Goosse, Gabriele C. Hegerl
Summary: Although the surface climate in West Antarctica has undergone significant changes in recent decades, the exact role of human activities in these changes has not been fully investigated, leading to uncertainties in future projections. This study uses instrumental and proxy-based reconstructions, as well as climate model simulations, to analyze and quantify the forced response in observed changes. The results show that the surface climate changes since the 1950s were largely driven by human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moritz Guenther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey
Summary: Research has shown that volcanic aerosol forcing leads to global cooling, but its efficacy is lower and feedback weakens over time. The impact is particularly significant in the tropical Indo-Pacific warm-pool region, playing a crucial role in restoring global temperature equilibrium.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anne K. K. Pardaens
Summary: This study examines the trends in the dynamic sea level (DSL) component of sea-level rise for the North Atlantic over the twenty-first century. Using multiple climate models and greenhouse gas scenarios, the researchers find that the DSL trend patterns in the early twenty-first century can indicate the long-term trend. Concurrent changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 30 degrees N can help assess whether observed DSL trends are likely to be a constraint on projections. The study also shows that the DSL and AMOC trends are interconnected and model simulations suggest that the twenty-first century trend patterns do not generally persist into subsequent centuries.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sitar Karabil, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Erwin Lambert, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Roderik S. W. Van de Wal
Summary: Change in Land Water Storage (LWS) is a key factor driving sea-level rise, influenced by both human activities and climate change. Studies suggest that LWS change will contribute around 10% to global sea-level rise, with projections of regional contributions potentially reaching up to 60% higher than the global average.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi, Cameron C. Lee
Summary: Global warming leads to changes in atmospheric thickness, which can be monitored and predicted through research. The study reveals a consistent positive trend in atmospheric layer thickness, but the magnitude varies regionally and seasonally. The impact of tropical and extra-tropical climate modes on these trends is also explored. Strong correlation is found between sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific warm pool region and global average thickness, indicating the significant role of oceanic-atmospheric interactions in driving global climate variations and extremes.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Guillaume Ghisbain, Wim Thiery, Francois Massonnet, Diana Erazo, Pierre Rasmont, Denis Michez, Simon Dellicour
Summary: A quantitative study of past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees finds that for 38-76% of species now considered non-threatened, suitable territory could decrease by at least 30% by 2061-2080.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yongxiao Liang, Nathan p. Gillett, Adam h. Monahan
Summary: Physically based observational constraint methods can effectively reduce uncertainty in global warming projections. The study finds that global low-cloud metrics perform better in constraining surface temperature projections compared to past warming trend or regional climate metrics. Constrained climate models provide more accurate projections and narrower uncertainty ranges.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Review
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Marcia K. McNutt
Summary: Geoscientists have been successful in predicting societal challenges but less successful in devising solutions. They need to collaborate with engineers, biologists, social scientists, and other researchers to address problems in fields such as climate change mitigation, environmental health, and sustainability science. A cultural change is needed in education, rewards, and funding to apply convergence science effectively.
ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Yangyang Xu, Anthony Versaci
Summary: The study presents an integrated model for understanding the role of human-natural systems interactions in climate change, emphasizing the importance of factoring in these interactions when formulating robust climate solutions.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jitendra Singh, Moetasim Ashfaq, Christopher B. Skinner, Weston B. Anderson, Vimal Mishra, Deepti Singh
Summary: Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Multiple simulations have shown that compound droughts will increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades, with North America and the Amazon region at higher risk.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alexander J. Thompson, Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jessica E. Tierney, Christopher B. Skinner
Summary: The controversy surrounding the Holocene thermal maximum, a period of global warmth in the early to mid-Holocene, has been addressed through simulations showing that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere can explain the warming trend that previous models failed to reproduce. These findings emphasize the importance of considering vegetation dynamics when modeling the temperature evolution during the Holocene.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moetasim Ashfaq, Shahid Mehmood, Sarah Kapnick, Subimal Ghosh, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Fred Kucharski, Fulden Batibeniz, Anamitra Saha, Katherine Evans, Huang-Hsiung Hsu
Summary: This study explores the variability of cold season precipitation in the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) and identifies the factors that influence it. The results indicate that the mid-latitude regions are the main sources of moisture, and various tropical and extratropical forcings have sub-seasonal impacts on precipitation distribution in the region. The sources of moisture anomalies depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moetasim Ashfaq, Deeksha Rastogi, Joy Kitson, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Shih-Chieh Kao
Summary: This article discusses the selection issue of Global Climate Models (GCMs) in downscaling studies and proposes a weighted averaging technique for ranking. The study finds that the sensitivity of GCMs to evaluation suite size varies and highlights the importance of comprehensive evaluation for selecting GCMs objectively.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Christopher B. B. Skinner, Juan M. M. Lora, Clay Tabor, Jiang Zhu
Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a significant role in the surface mass balance of current Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. A study using paleoclimate simulations reveals that ARs also had a crucial impact on the extensive ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). These ARs contribute up to 53% of total precipitation along the margins of the eastern Laurentide ice sheet and 22%-27% along the margins of the Patagonian, western Cordilleran, and western Fennoscandian ice sheets. Despite the overall cold conditions during the LGM, surface temperatures during AR events are often above freezing, resulting in more rain than snow and promoting surface melt. These findings suggest that ARs may have played a significant role in ice sheet growth and melt during previous glacial periods and potentially accelerated ice sheet retreat after the LGM.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Gregory R. Quetin, Caroline A. Famiglietti, Nathan C. Dadap, A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Junjie Liu, Anna T. Trugman, Alexandra G. Konings
Summary: Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations have enhanced photosynthesis globally, but also led to greater respiration rates. The change in carbon flux due to increasing CO2 and climate change remains unknown. Using a model-data fusion system, we found that photosynthesis and respiration response to atmospheric CO2 dominates their response to climate alone. The respiration response plays a crucial role in regulating the land carbon sink.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Elizabeth A. Barnes
Summary: Using trained artificial neural networks (ANNs) and historical temperature observations, we accurately predict the timing of global warming reaching critical thresholds. The estimated timing for the 1.5 degrees C threshold is between 2033 and 2035, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold even in the Low climate forcing scenario.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bingjie Zhao, Shih-Chieh Kao, Gang Zhao, Sudershan Gangrade, Deeksha Rastogi, Moetasim Ashfaq, Huilin Gao
Summary: Enhanced reservoir evaporation is a growing concern due to increasing water demand, and this study evaluated evaporation rates and losses for major reservoirs in the Contiguous United States. Using the Lake Evaporation Model and climate projections, it was found that evaporation loss may increase significantly over the research period. The Rio Grande region is projected to have the highest increasing rate, with the most significant increase occurring during the fall season.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jared T. T. Trok, Frances V. V. Davenport, Elizabeth A. A. Barnes, Noah S. S. Diffenbaugh
Summary: Soil moisture affects near-surface air temperature by dividing downwelling radiation into latent and sensible heat fluxes, resulting in higher temperatures with drier soils. This study proposes a nonlinear machine learning method to analyze the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in various mid-latitude regions. The method uses convolutional neural networks to predict daily maximum temperature based on soil moisture and geopotential height fields, and partial dependence analysis to determine the sensitivity of temperature prediction to soil moisture input under different atmospheric conditions. The results show nonlinear relationships between temperature prediction and soil moisture, which vary regionally. The study also explores the influence of soil moisture memory on the coupling, with consistent results with previous studies.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Tyler S. Harrington, Jesse Nusbaumer, Christopher B. Skinner
Summary: This study examines the contribution of land surface evapotranspiration to precipitation in North America. It finds that a large portion of summertime precipitation in the region is sourced from land surface evapotranspiration, with over 50% originating from transpiration alone. Precipitation in the southern and western regions is mainly influenced by local moisture recycling, while in the northern and eastern regions, it is dominated by remotely sourced moisture, particularly from transpiration. The findings provide key insights for drought prediction and water resource management.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amina Ly, Frances V. Davenport, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Summary: This study provides a detailed characterization of the temperature-mobility relationship in the San Francisco Bay Area, indicating that higher temperatures lead to lower mobility rates. The study also reveals variations in mobility response based on factors such as extreme hot days, weekdays vs weekends, and socioeconomic status.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. M. Lora, C. B. Skinner, W. D. Rush, S. H. Baek
Summary: Proxy reconstructions and model simulations show that the hydroclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum was mainly influenced by ice sheets, causing reductions in moisture transport and precipitation globally, except for increases in precipitation over Patagonia, Iberia, and southwestern North America.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yang Gao, Yubing Wu, Xiuwen Guo, Wenbin Kou, Shaoqing Zhang, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaodong Chen, Jian Lu, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel E. Horton, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, Lixin Wu
Summary: Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, and a high-resolution climate model can better simulate temperature distribution characteristics. Surface soil moisture and energy partitioning can alter the intensity and persistence of heatwaves.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Minghao Qiu, Nathan Ratledge, Ines M. L. Azevedo, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
Summary: The western United States has been experiencing severe drought, which is predicted to worsen in the future. This drought has significant impacts on the region's hydropower-dependent electricity systems, resulting in increased fossil fuel generation and greenhouse gas emissions. These drought-induced emissions have detectable impacts on local air quality, leading to health hazards. The costs of excess mortality and GHG emissions from drought-induced fossil generation are estimated to be 1.2 to 2.5 times higher than the reported economic costs from lost hydro production and increased demand. It suggests that more ambitious measures are needed to mitigate the emissions and health burden from the electricity sector during drought.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Amina Ly, Jonas Geschke, Mark A. Snethlage, Kerrie L. Stauffer, Jasmin Nussbaumer, Dominic Schweizer, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Markus Fischer, Davnah Urbach
Summary: This study compares two biodiversity protection reporting metrics applied at different spatial scales using mountain ecosystems as an example.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
