Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. C. H. Chiang, W. Cheng, W. M. Kim, S. Kim
Summary: The relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability and high-latitude North Atlantic buoyancy changes is influenced by both driving and responding roles of temperature and salinity. Analysis of control simulations reveals that North Atlantic buoyancy-forced AMOC variability is present in both oscillatory and red-noise regimes, with the latter showing weaker buoyancy-driven AMOC changes and additional multidecadal/centennial AMOC behavior unrelated to North Atlantic buoyancy forcing.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shantong Sun, Andrew F. Thompson, Shang-Ping Xie, Shang-Min Long
Summary: The reorganization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) leads to interbasin heat transport, which redistributes heat between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. This transient response plays a key role in the global ocean heat budget, especially in a changing climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sara Berglund, Kristofer Doos, Sjoerd Groeskamp, Trevor J. McDougall
Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for regulating Earth's climate, and a new feature related to the northward flowing component of AMOC within the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre has been identified. It has been found that 70% of the northward flowing water in AMOC circulates within the Gyre before continuing its northward path. This circulation is important for increasing density and depth, which in turn affect the strength and variability of AMOC and heat transport towards the north.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jiechun Deng, Aiguo Dai
Summary: The study shows that sea ice-air interactions are crucial for multidecadal climate variability in both the Arctic and North Atlantic. By amplifying multidecadal variations in sea-ice cover, sea surface temperatures, and surface air temperature, sea ice-air interactions mainly affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through changes in surface fluxes.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anastasia Romanou, David Rind, Jeff Jonas, Ron Miller, Maxwell Kelley, Gary Russell, Clara Orbe, Larissa Nazarenko, Rebecca Latto, Gavin a. Schmidt
Summary: A 10-member ensemble simulation with the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2-4.5 extended scenario. This response is a manifestation of noise-induced bifurcation, enhanced by feedbacks, revealing the role stochastic variability may play in AMOC stability. Rating: 7/10.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fabio Boeira Dias, Catia M. Domingues, Simon J. Marsland, Stephen R. Rintoul, Petteri Uotila, Russell Fiedler, Mauricio M. Mata, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Abhishek Savita
Summary: The study highlights the influence of surface wind perturbations on the response of the Antarctic subpolar Southern Ocean, leading to enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation and accelerated global Meridional Overturning Circulation. Open Water Polynya (OWP) events are triggered by upwelling warm waters and inhibition of sea ice growth, with their availability linked to deep ocean heat reservoirs.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Leon Chafik, N. Penny Holliday, Sheldon Bacon, Jonathan A. Baker, Damien Desbruyeres, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Laura C. Jackson
Summary: The overturning circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is crucial for Earth's climate variability and change. Based on observations, the recent warming in the eastern SPNA since 2016 is primarily caused by increased western boundary density at the intergyre boundary, which is likely a response to the strong increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation since the early 2010s. These positive density anomalies spread southward along the western boundary, enhancing the North Atlantic Current and meridional heat transport, leading to an increased influx of subtropical heat into the eastern SPNA.
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Clara Orbe, David Rind, Ron l. Miller, Larissa S. Nazarenko, Anastasia Romanou, Jeffrey Jonas, Gary l. Russell, Maxwell Kelley, Gavin A. Schmidt
Summary: Climate models project a future weakening of the AMOC, but the impacts of this on climate are uncertain. By using a unique ensemble of CMIP6 GISS ModelE (E2.1) SSP 2-4.5 integrations, we isolate the climate impacts of a weakened AMOC and find that it results in a northward shift and strengthening of the NH Hadley cell and intensification of the northern midlatitude eddy-driven jet.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
L. Caesar, G. D. McCarthy, D. J. R. Thornalley, N. Cahill, S. Rahmstorf
Summary: Research shows that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has undergone different stages of evolution, gradually weakening from a relatively stable period to the weakest state in recent decades.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sara Berglund, Kristofer Doos, Sjoerd Groeskamp, Trevor McDougall
Summary: The meridional transport of mass, heat, and salt in the North Atlantic Ocean has been divided into four different pathways using Lagrangian trajectories. At the boundary between the Subpolar and Subtropical Gyres, there is a crucial subsurface water mass exchange, occurring within the first 1,000 m, that contributes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Between 30° and 60°N, the northward flowing water loses 8.8 Gg/s salt to the Subpolar Gyre and only 1.7 Gg/s to the atmosphere.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hyo-Jeong Kim, Soon-Il An, Soong-Ki Kim, Jae-Heung Park
Summary: This study aims to improve the understanding of transient thermohaline circulation responses under rapidly varying forcing and their dependence on forcing time scales. The results suggest that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse and recovery occur at higher and lower freshwater forcing values, respectively, when the forcing time scale is shorter.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rui Jiang, Haijun Yang
Summary: The study found that the Rocky Mountains have a significant impact on atmospheric moisture transport between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but play a trivial role in Northern Hemisphere deep-water formation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Maria J. Molina, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl
Summary: Consequences of an AMOC slowdown or collapse could include changes to ENSO and the development of PMOC. However, our understanding of the influence of AMOC and PMOC on ENSO and global SSTs is limited. This study found that an AMOC shutdown leads to a decrease in tropical Pacific SSTs and an increase in ENSO amplitude, while active deep overturning circulations in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins reduce ENSO amplitude globally. The underlying mechanisms driving these changes differ depending on PMOC state.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Yao Ge, Aiguo Dai, Lin Wang, Ian Simmonds, Cunde Xiao, Lixin Wu, Yao Yao
Summary: This paper finds that the winter sea-ice over the Barents-Kara Seas has exhibited strengthened interannual variations in recent decades likely due to increased amplitudes of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Johan Nilsson, David Ferreira, Tapio Schneider, Robert C. J. Wills
Summary: Through observations and a conceptual model, the role of oceanic and atmospheric processes in creating the surface salinity difference between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific was examined. It was found that the lower sensitivity of Atlantic surface salinity to net evaporation variations and the interbasin difference in salinity is primarily caused by the spatial structure of net evaporation. Additionally, the zonal-mean near-surface salinity is shaped primarily by the spatial pattern of net evaporation and the diffusive meridional salt transport due to wind-driven gyres and mesoscale ocean eddies.
JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Matthew B. Menary, Juliette Mignot, Jon Robson
Summary: Predicting regional climate variability, particularly in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions. A new model-analogue benchmark has been developed to make skilful predictions of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, leveraging latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations. The system suggests that the limits of initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
L. F. Borchert, V Koul, M. B. Menary, D. J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin, J. Mignot
Summary: Decadal prediction simulations in the CMIP6 archive show high predictability for Southern European summer temperatures up to ten years, mostly related to externally forced response. However, prediction skill for the unforced signal of summer temperatures is low, leading to the development of a dynamical-statistical model to improve prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperatures.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Remy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Julie Deshayes, Guillaume Gastineau, Frederic Hourdin, Juliette Mignot, Jerome Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw
Summary: The study assessed the performance of IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model in simulating historical climate variability, particularly focusing on global temperature evolution and recent warming trends. The model exhibits significant internal climate variability, including a quasi-bicentennial mode associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
H. R. Langehaug, P. Ortega, F. Counillon, D. Matei, E. Maroon, N. Keenlyside, J. Mignot, Y. Wang, D. Swingedouw, I Bethke, S. Yang, G. Danabasoglu, A. Bellucci, P. Ruggieri, D. Nicoli, M. Arthun
Summary: This study assesses the ability of seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems to retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic seas. The results show that SST skill is low, with significant skill only at a lead time of 1-2 years. The prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating a misrepresentation of the underlying physical mechanism. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
D. J. Befort, L. Brunner, L. F. Borchert, C. H. O'Reilly, J. Mignot, A. P. Ballinger, G. C. Hegerl, J. M. Murphy, A. Weisheimer
Summary: This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. The results show that this approach has the potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Two potential ways to reduce inconsistencies, calibration method and model weighting, are discussed.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Cassien D. Ndiaye, Elsa Mohino, Juliette Mignot, Saidou M. Sall
Summary: This study evaluates the internally and externally driven decadal modulations of Sahel rainfall during the twentieth century. It finds that most models underestimate the amplitude of decadal variability, which is mainly produced by internally driven components. However, external forcing tends to enhance the synchrony of simulated and observed decadal modulations, with statistically significant correlations found in IPSL-CM6A-LR, INM-CM5-0, MRI-ESM2-0, and GISS-E2-1-G models.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yona Silvy, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Eric Guilyardi, Juliette Mignot, Clement Rousset
Summary: This study investigates the mechanisms driving regional ocean warming and its emergence from internal variability. It finds that the contribution of different processes can vary in time, affecting the time of emergence of subsurface temperature changes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Aissatou Badji, Elsa Mohino, Moussa Diakhate, Juliette Mignot, Amadou Thierno Gaye
Summary: Rainfall characteristics in monsoon regions, such as the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, show significant decadal variability. This study reveals that the modulation of rainfall characteristics in Senegal is strongly linked to both the Atlantic multidecadal variability and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Understanding these variations is crucial for understanding rainfall patterns in monsoon regions.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Brady S. Ferster, Amelie Simon, Alexey Fedorov, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi
Summary: The study investigates the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic climate. The results show that the reduction in dense water formation led to a weakening of AMOC, which was later compensated by intensified dense water formation in the Western Subpolar North Atlantic. The wind-driven intensification of the subpolar gyre caused a depth-extended cold anomaly in the North Atlantic similar to the warming hole.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Summary: This study reconstructs the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium using a paleoclimate database and a statistical framework. It finds that the memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability has increased recently, which may be a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Giovanni Sgubin, Didier Swingedouw, Juliette Mignot, Gregory Alan Gambetta, Benjamin Bois, Harilaos Loukos, Thomas Noel, Philippe Pieri, Inaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Nathalie Ollat, Cornelis van Leeuwen
Summary: Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. This study analyzes the future evolution of wine production in Europe under different global warming scenarios. The results suggest that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions, and adaptation measures become more challenging as global warming increases.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Paul-Arthur Monerie, Michela Biasutti, Juliette Mignot, Elsa Mohino, Benjamin Pohl, Giuseppe Zappa
Summary: Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain due to differences in projections from different climate models. This study identifies the driving factors behind these uncertainties and constructs possible scenarios based on changes in North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperatures. The results show that the uncertainties in Sahel precipitation can be attributed to the future warming of these regions. It is crucial to constrain the uncertainty in the warming of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean areas in order to reduce the uncertainty in Sahel precipitation.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Doug M. M. Smith, Nathan P. P. Gillett, Isla R. R. Simpson, Panos J. J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, Ingo Bethke, Tarkan A. A. Bilge, Remy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Kirsten L. L. Findell, Guillaume Gastineau, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, L. Ruby Leung, Juliette Mignot, Wolfgang A. A. Mueller, Scott Osprey, Odd Helge Ottera, Geeta G. G. Persad, Adam A. A. Scaife, Gavin A. A. Schmidt, Hideo Shiogama, Rowan T. T. Sutton, Didier Swingedouw, Shuting Yang, Tianjun Zhou, Tilo Ziehn
Summary: Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events, which have major impacts on society and pose severe challenges for adaptation. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential for early warnings of these changes. However, understanding the causes of regional climate changes on these timescales is crucial for attributing recent events and increasing confidence in forecasts. The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project aims to address this need through coordinated model experiments and an attribution approach that accounts for model errors.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Adama Sylla, Emilia Sanchez Gomez, Juliette Mignot, Jorge Lopez-Parages
Summary: We investigated the representation of the Canary upwelling system in different climate models operated at high and standard resolution. The results show that increasing model resolution may not always lead to an improvement in simulating upwelling phenomena, as the skill of the models varies depending on the subdomain of the Canary upwelling system considered.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yona Silvy, Clement Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethe, Gurvan Madec
Summary: The ocean responds to climate change by modifying heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes at its boundaries. Understanding the specific role of each contributor in shaping ocean thermohaline structure changes is crucial for understanding climate change. This study proposes a modeling framework to isolate these contributions and analyze historical and projected ocean changes within single climate models. The results provide new opportunities for studying the mechanisms driving ocean changes.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)