Species distribution models and mitochondrial DNA phylogeography suggest an extensive biogeographical shift in the high-intertidal seaweed Pelvetia canaliculata

Aim Species distributions have been continuously adjusting to changing climatic conditions throughout the glacial-interglacial cycles. In the marine realm, evidence suggests that latitudinal range shifts, involving both spatial expansions and trailing-edge contractions, may represent a common response to climatic oscillations. The biogeographical histories of coastal organisms, however, have been inferred primarily using molecular markers, potentially overlooking past range dynamics beyond contemporary rear edges. In this study we combined species distribution models (SDMs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data to investigate the biogeographical history of the high-intertidal seaweed Pelvetia canaliculata. We investigated the hypotheses that its distribution is set by both marine and terrestrial climates and that its range has shifted northwards since the Last Glacial Maximum. Location North-eastern Atlantic intertidal from Portugal to Norway. Methods In total, 432 individuals at 27 sites covering the extant range of Pelvetia canaliculata were sampled and sequenced for a c. 500bp mtDNA intergenic spacer. A niche model was developed using marine and terrestrial variables. Range dynamics were reconstructed based on the geographical patterns of genetic variation and on the SDM projections for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present. Results The best distribution models incorporated both marine and terrestrial variables. LGM projections revealed suitable habitat between southern Morocco and the periglacial shorelines of the Celtic Sea. Pelvetia canaliculata exhibited a highly structured phylogeography, being subdivided into three largely disjunct lineages, two of them endemic to Iberia. The central/northern European lineage exhibited the highest haplotypic diversity and showed a consistent decline in nucleotide diversity and haplotypic richness at higher latitudes. Main conclusions Assuming species/climate equilibrium, SDMs supported the hypothesis of a post-glacial latitudinal range shift. Molecular variation revealed contrasting demographic behaviours in Iberian and periglacial regions. In Iberia the low haplotypic diversity suggested complex range dynamics that are not fully captured by SDM projections. Periglacial regions, identified as the source of poleward colonization, were inferred to have been comparatively more stable. Greater attention should be paid to marine range dynamics at low-latitude range margins, particularly in genetically structured low-dispersal species exhibiting southern endemic variation.