Article
Environmental Sciences
Gordon B. Bonan, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder
Summary: Uncertainty in model initialization affects climate simulations and hinders the assessment of trends in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Climate scientists use initial-condition ensembles to separate forced climate change signals from unforced internal variability, but this uncertainty in initialization can still lead to spurious trends. Through analyzing an 11-member ensemble, it is shown that multiple possible histories could have been observed due to internal variability, leading to ambiguity in the magnitude and direction of carbon cycle trends.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Isabel L. McCoy, Mika A. Vogt, Robert Wood
Summary: Future precipitation changes are influenced by the energy budget of the atmosphere, with temperature, water vapor, and absorbing aerosols playing major roles in driving radiative changes. The impact of aerosol cleanup on precipitation is larger than the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation, indicating the significant importance of policy choices regarding absorbing aerosol emissions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Carola Martens, Thomas Hickler, Claire Davis-Reddy, Francois Engelbrecht, Steven Higgins, Graham P. von Maltitz, Guy F. Midgley, Mirjam Pfeiffer, Simon Scheiter
Summary: This study used an adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to assess potential changes in African ecosystems in the future, finding that climate and CO2 changes may lead to increased carbon in aboveground vegetation and promote woody encroachment. Interactions between fire and plant demography could further drive woody encroachment.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alan M. Seltzer, Pierre-Henri Blard, Steven C. Sherwood, Masa Kageyama
Summary: Terrestrial amplification of land warming relative to oceans is important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for this has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of terrestrial amplification remain uncertain. This study investigates terrestrial amplification during the Last Glacial Maximum and provides crucial new support for its existence.
Article
Environmental Sciences
T. F. Loughran, L. Boysen, A. Bastos, K. Hartung, F. Havermann, H. Li, J. E. M. S. Nabel, W. A. Obermeier, J. Pongratz
Summary: Quantifying anthropogenic CO2 fluxes is crucial for understanding carbon sink capacities and mitigation efforts. Internal climate variability is key for predicting future carbon budgets, with substantial fluctuations observed in likelihoods due to factors like El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Human actions have been inconsistent with climate goals, as highlighted by land-use change emissions discrepancies.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Laura Giustarini, Guy J. -P. Schumann, Albert J. Kettner, Andrew Smith, Raphael Nawrotzki
Summary: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of river discharge in Morocco to estimate past and future hydrological extremes. Hydrological simulations were conducted using historical and climate change scenario inputs to understand changes in extreme discharge events that lead to flooding. The study covers all major rivers in Morocco and includes 16 basins that cover a significant part of the country. The analysis reveals clear patterns of changing flood extremes, with different behavior observed in different climate change scenarios. This research presents a methodology that can be applied to regions with limited data to estimate future flood hazards.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jin Hyuck Kim, Jang Hyun Sung, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun Sung Chung
Summary: This study proposed a framework to project future hydrological droughts considering agricultural water withdrawal. The results revealed that future droughts would be more frequent and severe, with increased potential evapotranspiration being the primary cause.
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Lijuan Hua, Tianbao Zhao, Linhao Zhong
Summary: Based on multi-model projections, possible future changes in meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought in Central Asia are analyzed. The results suggest an asymmetrical west-east precipitation pattern, with a decrease in the west and an increase in the east. Drought frequency and duration are projected to increase in most of Central Asia due to enhanced evaporation.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Li Qiu, Hans Jacquemyn, Kevin S. Burgess, Li-Guo Zhang, Ya-Dong Zhou, Bo-Yun Yang, Shao-Lin Tan
Summary: Climate change has impacted the distribution and abundance of plant and animal species, including the threatened Orchidaceae family. The response of orchids to climate change remains largely unknown. A study on Habenaria and Calanthe species in China found that most Habenaria species will expand their ranges, while most Calanthe species will shrink their ranges dramatically. These findings emphasize the importance of considering climate-adaptive traits in orchid conservation.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rafael Fausto de Lima, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, Joao Antonio Lorencone, Pedro Antonio Lorencone, Kamila Cunha de Meneses, Jose Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes, Glauco de Souza Rolim
Summary: The study classified the climate of the Brazilian territory using the Thornthwaite system and evaluated different climate change scenarios. The results showed variations in climate classification across different scenarios, with different impacts on crop cultivation in different regions of Brazil.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Virgilio A. Bento, Daniela C. A. Lima, Luana C. Santos, Miguel M. Lima, Ana Russo, Silvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Ricardo M. Trigo, Pedro M. M. Soares
Summary: This study examines the future fire risk on the Iberian Peninsula using the fire weather index (FWI) and an improved fire danger index (FWIe). The results show that summer fire danger is expected to substantially increase in the future, with a longer danger period extending into June and September. The northwestern region of Iberia, including Portugal and Spain, is projected to experience the largest increases in fire danger, highlighting the need for enhanced monitoring and management.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Liwei Zou
Summary: The study reveals the competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to pollutant source and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. A compound consideration of these two impacts should be taken in future policy making.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
E. Cusinato, A. Rubino, D. Zanchettin
Summary: The study shows that at the end of the 21st Century, the simulated climate change patterns exhibit non-significant distributional changes for NAO, EAWR, and SCA indices, while EA pattern transitions to a baroclinic structure in the mid-troposphere during winter, enhancing the globally-driven warming over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Temperature and precipitation hemispheric spatial correlation patterns significantly change for all modes, with a significant modulation of teleconnections associated with each index.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Young Hoon Song, Eun-Sung Chung, Shamsuddin Shahid
Summary: This study compares the performance of LSTM networks and SWAT in simulating observed runoff and projecting future runoff. The results show that LSTM has better capability in reproducing observed runoff and estimating future runoff.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Eduardo Gomes, Miguel Inacio, Katazyna Bogdzevi, Marius Kalinauskas, Donalda Karnauskait, Paulo Pereira
Summary: Studies have primarily focused on future land use and land cover changes in Asia (55.70%) and Europe (17.72%), using models such as cellular automata, CLUE-S, and Land Change Modeler. Most studies have concentrated on measuring future impacts on provisioning (44.11%) and regulating services (43.59%), with the majority lacking external validation. This review highlights gaps and insights in current scientific research, making a significant contribution to knowledge for practitioners and scientists.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
A. V. Eliseev, A. N. Ploskov, A. V. Chernokulsky, I. I. Mokhov
DOKLADY EARTH SCIENCES
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
K. E. Muryshev, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, I. I. Mokhov, M. M. Arzhanov, A. V. Timazhev
IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS
(2019)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov
DOKLADY EARTH SCIENCES
(2019)
Article
Optics
A. V. Eliseev, A. V. Timazhev, P. L. Jimenez
Summary: A global analysis of specific air humidity, sulfur dioxide, and sulfate aerosols reveals their distinct vertical distributions related to different geographical features. The maximum height of the planetary boundary layer is observed in regions with cyclonic gyres and monsoonal circulation. The subtropical gyres exhibit minimum specific humidity profiles, indicating large-scale air subsidence. Additionally, there is a positive correlation between scale heights of sulfur dioxide and sulfates, particularly in heavily polluted regions.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OPTICS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov
Summary: This study obtained model estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gas fluxes from different countries to global climate change. The results showed that natural ecosystems in Russia, China, Canada, and the United States are expected to reduce their CO2 uptake, while wetlands in these regions are expected to significantly increase their methane emissions, potentially accelerating warming.
RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Alexey V. Eliseev, Rustam D. Gizatullin, Alexandr V. Timazhev
Summary: The ChAP 1.0 scheme is a stationary and computationally efficient model developed for studying the sulfur cycle in the troposphere, particularly designed for Earth system models of intermediate complexity. It accounts for sulfur dioxide emissions, deposition, oxidation, and removal processes, and has been compared to various data sources to validate its performance. Despite its simplicity, ChAP can accurately simulate anthropogenic sulfur pollution on coarse spatial and temporal scales.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2021)
Proceedings Paper
Environmental Sciences
K. D. Savina, A. Eliseev
CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSES, RISKS, CONSEQUENCES, PROBLEMS OF ADAPTATION AND MANAGEMENT
(2020)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
I. I. Mokhov, A. Eliseev, V. V. Guryanov
DOKLADY EARTH SCIENCES
(2020)
Proceedings Paper
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Valentina V. Malakhova, Alexey V. Eliseev
25TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN OPTICS: ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
(2019)
Proceedings Paper
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kiri E. Muryshev, Alexey V. Eliseev, Igor I. Mokhov, Maxim M. Arzhanov, Alexandr V. Timazhev, Sergey N. Denisov
25TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN OPTICS: ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
(2019)
Proceedings Paper
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alexey V. Eliseev, Igor I. Mokhov
25TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN OPTICS: ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
(2019)
Proceedings Paper
Environmental Sciences
A. Eliseev, A. N. Ploskov, A. Chernokulsky, I. I. Mokhov
PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT PROCESSES (2018)
(2019)
Proceedings Paper
Environmental Sciences
O. Kibanova, A. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov, V. Ch Khon
PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT PROCESSES (2018)
(2019)
Proceedings Paper
Environmental Sciences
K. E. Muryshev, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, I. I. Mokhov, M. M. Arzhanov, A. V. Timazhev
TURBULENCE, ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
A. Eliseev, M. Zhang, R. D. Gizatullin, A. Altukhova, Yu P. Perevedentsev, A. Skorokhod
IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS
(2019)