The spatial nexus between population growth and land degradation in a dry Mediterranean region: a rapidly changing pattern?

A better understanding of the spatial linkage between the distribution of land vulnerable to degradation and long-term population growth may contribute to sustainable land management of dry regions. Such a nexus has received increasing attention among politicians and local stakeholders, as its complex outcomes depend on mutual interactions between socioeconomic and biophysical factors. This is particularly true in southern Europe, where important processes of land degradation (LD) have been observed in recent years. This paper analyses population growth (1871-2007) in southern Italy and questions its relationship with the level of land vulnerable to degradation. Results indicate that vulnerable lands were more likely associated with areas where population growth has determined environmental pressures on coastal areas and the neighbouring lowlands during 1950-1980. This pattern consolidated the socioeconomic polarisation between core and peripheral areas. Since the 1980s, however, southern Italy has experienced a phase of polycentric development, possibly determining a 'decoupling' between population density and land vulnerability to degradation. Population increased in moderately vulnerable areas but decreased in highly vulnerable areas. The policy implications of these results are discussed.