Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Markus Adloff, Michael Bliss Singer, David A. MacLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Nooshin Mehrnegar, Eleanor Hansford, Chris Funk, Daniel Mitchell
Summary: Rural communities in the Horn of Africa Drylands (HADs) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to multi-season droughts due to their strong dependence on seasonal rainfall. However, despite a decrease in total March-April-May rainfall, the total water storage in the region has increased. This increase is strongly correlated with seasonal rainfall totals, especially extreme rainfall in the two dominant rainy seasons between 2003 and 2016. Furthermore, high-intensity October-November-December rainfall, associated with positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, leads to the greatest seasonal increases in water storage, which can persist for multiple years.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Getachew Tegegne, Assefa M. Melesse, Tena Alamirew
Summary: The study predicts significant changes in precipitation extremes in most parts of Ethiopia in the coming years, including an increase in both droughts and floods frequencies, especially in the southern region. This will have negative impacts on food and water security, but could also potentially increase dry season agricultural productivity and reduce flood occurrences through efficient irrigation systems.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chang-Kyun Park, Sangeun Lee, Hyuncheol Yoon, Jonghun Kam
Summary: This study investigates the meteorological drought caused by cumulative precipitation deficits in the southwestern Korean Peninsula since early spring 2022 and predicts the sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks of the drought using probabilistic and climate model-based forecasts. The results show that both springtime and summertime precipitation deficits in 2022 contribute equally to the ongoing drought, with the six-month accumulated precipitation deficit being a key driver. At least 80, 150, and 210 mm of precipitation are required for recovery in March, April, and May 2023, respectively.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Linyong Wei, Shanhu Jiang, Liliang Ren, Menghao Wang, Linqi Zhang, Yi Liu, Fei Yuan, Xiaoli Yang
Summary: The study evaluated the reliability of seventeen precipitation products for drought monitoring in mainland China, with satellite-based products outperforming reanalysis and real-time datasets. MERRA2 and GPCC showed the best performance in precipitation estimation and drought monitoring.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. N. Okpara, K. O. Ogunjobi, E. A. Adefisan
Summary: To effectively manage drought in the Niger River Basin, decision-makers need to distinguish dry spells from drought and establish thresholds to determine the severity of drought and implement appropriate water resource management measures. This study utilizes precipitation reanalysis records to establish index- and percentiles-based thresholds for defining dry spell and drought. The results provide operational criteria for early drought detection.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Temesgen Gebremariam Asfaw, Jing-Jia Luo
Summary: This study assesses the performance of NUIST-CFS1.0 in forecasting seasonal precipitation anomalies over East Africa. The results show that the model has positive skill in capturing the spatial pattern of observed seasonal precipitation climatology in most parts of East Africa, indicating its potential usefulness in climate change impact assessment.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
T. M. Tladi, J. M. Ndambuki, R. W. Salim
Summary: This study assessed the adequacy of NCEP-CFSR and ERA5 rainfall data in monitoring meteorological drought in the Upper Olifants sub-basin, South Africa. The results showed that ERA5 had better correlation, lower error, and lower bias compared to CFSR. ERA5 also detected more major drought events. The study concluded that ERA5 is a better product for meteorological drought monitoring in the study area.
PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andrew Paul Barnes, Nick McCullen, Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen
Summary: This paper presents an approach that combines modern meteorological forecasts with convolutional neural networks to improve the forecasting of monthly regional rainfall in Great Britain. The approach outperforms traditional numerical simulations and empirical models, and shows better performance compared to ECMWF predictions across different lead times.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Brian Ayugi, Zablon Weku Shilenje, Hassen Babaousmail, Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, Richard Mumo, Victor Nnamdi Dike, Vedaste Iyakaremye, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Victor Ongoma
Summary: The ongoing global warming has led to an increase in extreme weather events, especially drought, in East Africa. This study investigates future changes in drought events using CMIP6 data, and finds that precipitation will increase in most parts of East Africa, but decrease in arid regions. This will result in more frequent and intense drought events in the future. Early preparation for these drought events is crucial.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Lujun Zhang, Taereem Kim, Tiantian Yang, Yang Hong, Qian Zhu
Summary: The study comprehensively evaluates the S2S precipitation forecasts from the NMME-2 dataset over the contiguous United States from 1982 to 2011, finding biases in different seasons and regions but decreasing skill with longer lead times. Simple model averaging (SMA) demonstrated higher forecast skill than individual NMME-2 models. Coasts in the Western U.S. showed the highest forecast skill scores with a one-week lead time, and NMME-2 performed better in predicting extreme precipitation events compared to historical resampled forecasts.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Huihui Zhang, Hugo A. Loaiciga, Qingyun Du, Tobias Sauter
Summary: Thorough evaluations of satellite precipitation products are necessary for accurately detecting meteorological drought. The study conducted a comprehensive assessment of 15 state-of-the-art precipitation products and found that GSMaP-G performed the best in drought detection and precipitation estimation. MERRA-2 and ERA5 were closer to the reference data and were suitable for precipitation estimation and drought detection in China. CPC-Global, IMERG, and ERA5 were ideal candidates for western China. Overall, the accuracy of precipitation products for drought detection improved with longer time scales of the SPEI.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Yuk Feng Huang, Jing Lin Ng, Kit Fai Fung, Tan Kok Weng, Nouar Aldahoul, Ali Najah Ahmed, Mohsen Sherif, Barkha Chaplot, Kai Lun Chong, Ahmed Elshafie
Summary: This study investigated the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of drought characteristics in Sabah and Sarawak, East Malaysia, and found that the periods of 1993-1997 and 2008-2012 had the highest and lowest drought occurrences. Understanding how and when drought occurs can aid in developing drought mitigation strategies.
APPLIED WATER SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, Xiefei Zhi, Brian O. Ayugi, Charles Onyutha, Zablon W. Shilenje, Victor Ongoma
Summary: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological drought in Africa and its climate subregions. Drought occurs across Africa, with the equatorial regions experiencing more severe droughts. Extreme drought months have the highest interannual variability. The study highlights the importance of analyzing drought at different levels and developing strategies to enhance community resilience and mitigate the impacts of drought in Africa.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Emmanuel Ocen, C. A. J. M. de Bie (Kees), Charles Onyutha
Summary: False start of the growing season (Fsos) is a crucial factor affecting agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa. By using rainfall estimates and remote sensing data combined with local knowledge, this study identifies different regions in Uganda facing dry spell risks during different seasons. These findings are essential for planning predictive adaptation measures to climate impacts on agriculture in the struggle to combat food insecurity in SSA.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Toma Rani Saha, Pallav K. Shrestha, Oldrich Rakovec, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego
Summary: The study aims to develop a high spatial resolution system to mitigate the impact of agricultural drought in South Asia. By monitoring soil moisture conditions and assessing historical drought conditions, better management of drought can be achieved.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Claudia Di Napoli, Theodore Allen, Pablo A. Mendez-Lazaro, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: Using 40 years of data, this study investigates the climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. The findings show that heat stress is most frequent and widespread during the rainy season, with an increasing trend driven by factors such as air temperature, radiation, and wind speed. The study also reveals a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat, and highlights the intensity of heat stress and danger in the region, including the record-breaking 2020 heat season.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Juergen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: A deeper understanding of the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for improving subseasonal forecasting of extreme precipitation events. Using a complex network approach, two dominant synchronization pathways and associated atmospheric circulation patterns between ISM and EASM are identified. Additionally, certain phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation are found to influence the synchronization of extreme rainfall events between ISM and EASM.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Emmanuel Rouges, Laura Ferranti, Holger Kantz, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: This study focuses on the predictability of European heatwaves at subseasonal timescales. It explores the potential role of land surface feedbacks and tropical convection in extending the predictability beyond the medium range. A classification based on circulation patterns is used to differentiate the effects of surface feedbacks and tropical variability among different types of heatwaves. The study finds that soil moisture deficit is not a necessary precondition for most heatwaves in Europe, but there is some sensitivity to dry conditions in southern Europe. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of tropical intraseasonal variability in enhancing the predictability of extreme temperature events in Europe.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton, Shaun Harrigan, Gwyneth Matthews, Ameer Muhammad, Karen O'Regan, Teresa Perez-Ciria, Emixi Valdez, Bart van Osnabrugge, Micha Werner, Carlo Buontempo, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Christel Prudhomme, Maria-Helena Ramos, Peter Salamon
Summary: This article summarizes the state-of-the-art presented at the Joint Virtual Workshop, 'Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: challenges and scientific advances', held from 29 June to 1 July 2021. It discusses recent advances in hydrological modelling and forecasting, reflections on the use of forecasts for decision-making across scales, and means to minimize new barriers to communication in the virtual format.
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Han Wang, Ping-an Zhong, Ervin Zsoter, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Bin Xu
Summary: This paper aims to improve flood forecasting by comparing the simulation results of a global hydrological forecast system and a regional system, and testing their influence on input data. The results showed that the global system had poorer simulation results due to lower input data quality. However, the global system had higher forecast quality in terms of high flow and longer lead times. Quantile mapping was effective in eliminating errors in input data, model, and initialization.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ruud T. W. L. H. Urkmans, Bart Van den H. Urk, Maurice S. Chmeits, Fredrik W. Etterhall, Ilias G. P. Echlivanidis
Summary: In order to manage the Dutch surface water reservoir Lake IJssel efficiently, (sub)seasonal forecasts of the water volumes going in and out of the reservoir are of great interest. This study analyzes streamflow forecasts for the river Rhine at Lobith, which is the main influx into the reservoir. The analysis shows that seasonal forecasts can predict discharge up to 4 months ahead in spring and early summer, but the skill decreases to 1-2 months later in summer.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2023)
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamid Moradkhani, Florian Pappenberger, Hamed Moftakhari, Paul Bates, Peyman Abbaszadeh, Reza Marsooli, Celso Ferreira, Hannah L. Cloke, Fred Ogden, Qingyun Duan
Summary: The scientific community has made significant efforts in simulating flooding conditions, but the current models still lack accuracy and reliability. It is suggested to adopt an approach that considers various factors and enhance understanding of flood generating mechanisms. Developing innovative earth system modeling frameworks and conducting rigorous studies can provide opportunities to improve flood prediction and mapping.
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
J. McNorton, A. Agusti-Panareda, G. Arduini, G. Balsamo, N. Bousserez, S. Boussetta, M. Chericoni, M. Choulga, R. Engelen, M. Guevara
Summary: The impact of urbanization on local weather patterns affects over half the global population. Global numerical weather prediction systems have reached a resolution at which urban conurbations can be spatially resolved, justifying their representation within land surface parameterizations with the aim of improving local predictions. Additionally, real-time atmospheric monitoring of trace gas emissions can utilize weather variables relevant for urban areas.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chloe Brimicombe, Chun Hay Brian Lo, Florian Pappenberger, Claudia Di Napoli, Pedro Maciel, Tiago Quintino, Rosalind Cornforth, Hannah L. Cloke
Summary: In this study, a new WBGT method is developed using global gridded meteorological variables and is found to be accurate compared to existing WBGT methods. This new method could potentially be used as a candidate for a global forecasting early warning system.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shraddha Gupta, Abhirup Banerjee, Norbert Marwan, David Richardson, Linus Magnusson, Juergen Kurths, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: Understanding error properties is crucial in numerical weather prediction. We propose a complex network-based approach to analyze error correlations and estimate their spatial variation. Our study shows the importance of diagnosing the full spatial variation of error correlations to understand the origin and propagation of forecast errors. Complex networks are a promising diagnostic tool in this regard.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
David A. Lavers, Ryan D. Torn, Chris Davis, David S. Richardson, F. Martin Ralph, Florian Pappenberger
Summary: The term jet stream refers to a narrow region of strong winds near the top of the midlatitude or subtropical troposphere. Accurately resolving the structure of the jet stream is critical for understanding atmospheric development and predicting extreme weather events. This study assesses the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in capturing the North Pacific jet stream structure using dropwindsonde observations. The results show that the IFS has a bias in wind speed and cannot accurately resolve the sharp potential vorticity gradient across the jet stream.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sazzad Hossain, Hannah L. Cloke, Andrea Ficchi, Harshita Gupta, Linda Speight, Ahmadul Hassan, Elisabeth M. Stephens
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of different versions of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) in predicting floods in the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangladesh. The results show that the new version performs better in some cases, but has limited skill in predicting extreme floods. The changes in model structures have complex effects on the model performance, and further investigation is needed to understand the skill changes across regions and decision-making criteria.
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, Hannah Cloke
Summary: This paper presents a revised and updated catalogue of meteotsunami events in the UK since 1750, confirming a prominent seasonal pattern with winter events associated with mid-latitude depressions. The study also identifies three hotspot areas at the highest risk from meteotsunami. The findings suggest that the hazard posed by meteotsunami has been underestimated in the UK.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anna Agusti-Panareda, Jerome Barre, Sebastien Massart, Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Bianca C. Baier, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Tobias Borsdorff, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Buchwitz, Luca Cantarello, Cyril Crevoisier, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Otto Hasekamp, Vincent Huijnen, Luke Jones, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Joe McNorton, Nicolas Meilhac, Stefan Noel, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Miha Razinger, Maximilian Reuter, Roberto Ribas, Martin Suttie, Colm Sweeney, Jerome Tarniewicz, Lianghai Wu
Summary: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has produced a greenhouse gas reanalysis dataset (version egg4) that covers nearly 2 decades from 2003 to 2020 and will be expanded in the future. This dataset combines model data with satellite data to create a globally complete and consistent dataset, which has been carefully evaluated against independent observations. The greenhouse gas reanalysis can be used for various applications, including studying the impact of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on climate change and assessing intercontinental transport.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
