Article
Environmental Sciences
Zengliang Luo, Han Yu, Huan Liu, Jie Chen
Summary: This study evaluates the accuracy of water budget closure for satellite/reanalysis-based hydrological data products in mainland China, and finds that satellite P products are relatively more accurate, while reanalysis P products show better budget closure performance.
Review
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Katharine Ricke, Jessica S. Wan, Marissa Saenger, Nicholas J. Lutsko
Summary: As carbon dioxide concentrations continue to increase and climate change becomes more severe, geoengineering has become an important topic of discussion. Solar geoengineering, which involves reflecting a portion of incoming sunlight, has the potential to quickly cool the planet, but its effects on regional climate patterns, particularly hydrological patterns, are uncertain. This review examines recent studies on the projected hydrologic outcomes of solar geoengineering, taking into account existing literature on hydrological responses to climate change. While most solar geoengineering approaches are expected to weaken the global hydrologic cycle, the specific regional effects will vary depending on the method and strategy of implementation. The findings highlight the importance of considering social conditions and objectives when interpreting the implications of geoengineering on human welfare. Suggestions are made for reducing uncertainties in decision-making in this emerging field of Earth science inquiry.
ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Darren L. Ficklin, Sarah E. Null, John T. Abatzoglou, Kimberly A. Novick, Daniel T. Myers
Summary: Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle, resulting in more extreme precipitation events and longer dry spells. Previous studies have focused on precipitation without considering changes in evaporative demand and plant responses. Using state-of-the-art climate models, we examine projected changes in hydrological intensification and its impact on water resources management. Our findings show that surplus events will become larger and more frequent, with the greatest changes expected in the northern latitudes. These extreme events will stress existing water management infrastructure in major river basins, particularly those with large reservoir capacity.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Arturo A. Keller, Kendra Garner, Nalini Rao, Eladio Knipping, Jeffrey Thomas
Summary: Global changes, such as climate and land use changes, have significant impacts on water resources. In order to plan for these changes, it is necessary to make projections and evaluate different hydrologic and water quality models. Among the models evaluated, MIKE-SHE, HEC-HMS, MODHMS, SWAT, and WARMF stand out in terms of functionality, availability, applicability, and support.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ondrej Lhotka, Jan Kysely
Summary: The study identified positive P-T correlations in winter and negative correlations in summer over Europe, with RCMs showing deficiencies in accurately reproducing these patterns, particularly in northern Europe and during summer months. Simulation differences in shortwave radiation and relative humidity were identified as contributing factors to these errors. This highlights the importance of addressing these deficiencies to enhance the credibility of projected climate change scenarios.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Shipeng Zhang, Philip Stier, Guy Dagan, Chen Zhou, Minghuai Wang
Summary: By conducting warming patch experiments on a climate model, it is found that the warming in tropical strongly ascending regions can explain a wide range of precipitation increase. By accounting for the pattern effect, the past global-mean precipitation can be well reconstructed, indicating the vital role of pattern effect in estimating future intensification of the hydrological cycle.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fabian J. Zowam, Adam M. Milewski, David F. F. Richards IV
Summary: This study tested a satellite-based WCI by comparing precipitation estimates from PRISM and GPM. The results showed no statistical difference between the two products across all climate classes. The study calculated changes in satellite-based WCI using GPM and evapotranspiration data, and found that the water cycle is speeding up in many parts of the contiguous United States, driven by increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Silvana Bolanos Chavarria, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, Teresita Betancur Vargas
Summary: Global models play a crucial role in studying climate and water resource stresses, especially where observational data is limited. Assessing the reliability of these models using GRACE satellite data is essential, particularly in tropical basins. Results show that as basin size decreases, the performance of models in representing Total Water Storage decreases as well.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sha Zhou, Trevor F. Keenan, A. Park Williams, Benjamin R. Lintner, Yao Zhang, Pierre Gentine
Summary: Increasing atmospheric CO2 and global warming will alter the global hydrological cycle, threatening freshwater availability. However, models have different projections for tropical hydrological changes, mainly due to differences in vegetation cover, stomatal conductance responses, atmospheric moisture, and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming also contribute to divergence in hydrological projections.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rodrigo Aguayo, Jorge Leon-Munoz, Rene Garreaud, Aldo Montecinos
Summary: The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes has caused significant environmental, social, and economic consequences. Through hydrological modeling and climate forecasting, it was found that the future may bring longer and more frequent severe droughts in the region. Further adaptation of climate impact assessments with new simulations is recommended as more CMIP6 models become available.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yan Yan, Guihua Wang, Nergui Nanding, Weitian Chen
Summary: The quality of four satellite-based precipitation products is evaluated and compared with gauge observations in Hunan province of China. The hydrological applications of these products are analyzed by comparing them with streamflow observations. The results indicate that IMERG-final performs the best among the satellite-based products, while gauge-based precipitation provides the most accurate results for streamflow estimation.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Robert Fajber, Aaron Donohoe, Sarah Ragen, Kyle C. Armour, Paul J. Kushner
Summary: Evaporation adds moisture and energy to the atmosphere, while condensation removes moisture and adds thermal energy. Surface evaporation and radiative cooling drive a net flow of energy, resulting in atmospheric heat transport. The distribution of evaporation changes governs the response of atmospheric heat transport to perturbations.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Manuela Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark
Summary: This study evaluates the ability of models calibrated according to standard model calibration metrics to capture flood spatial coherence and triggering mechanisms. It was found that the models tend to underestimate flood magnitude and do not accurately capture flood timing. Results also show that changes in precipitation and temperature may not always be well translated into changes in flood flow, making local and regional flood hazard assessments more difficult for future conditions.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Paulo Rodrigo Zanin, Prakki Satyamurty
Summary: The interseasonal and interbasins hydrological coupling between the Amazon and La Plata watersheds was analyzed using various datasets, confirming the interconnected hydrological processes between the two basins. The study found that precipitation in the southeastern region of the Amazon Basin at the end of the South American monsoon influences winter precipitation in the central-western region of the La Plata Basin.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rolf Hut
Summary: This study tests the hypothesis that coupling a global glacier model with a global hydrological model leads to improved runoff predictions. The results show that the coupled model produces higher runoff estimates and better reproduces basin runoff observations in glacierized basins, emphasizing the importance of glacier representation in global hydrological models.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
R. J. H. Dunn, F. Aldred, N. Gobron, J. B. Miller, K. M. Willett, M. Ades, Robert Adler, Richard, P. Allan, Rob Allan, J. Anderson, Anthony Arguez, C. Arosio, John A. Augustine, C. Azorin-Molina, J. Barichivich, H. E. Beck, Andreas Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Angela Benedetti, David I. Berry, Stephen Blenkinsop, Olivier Bock, X. Bodin, Michael G. Bosilovich, Olivier Boucher, S. A. Buehler, B. Calmettes, Laura Carrea, Laura Castia, Hanne H. Christiansen, John R. Christy, E. -S. Chung, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Owen R. Cooper, Richard C. Cornes, Curt Covey, J. -F. Cretaux, M. Crotwell, Sean M. Davis, Richard A. M. De Jeu, Doug Degenstein, R. Delaloye, Larry Di Girolamo, Markus G. Donat, Wouter A. Dorigo, Imke Durre, Geoff S. Dutton, Gregory Duveiller, James W. Elkins, Vitali E. Fioletov, Johannes Flemming, Michael J. Foster, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, J. Garforth, Matthew Gentry, S. K. Gupta, S. Hahn, Leopold Haimberger, Brad D. Hall, Ian Harris, D. L. Hemming, M. Hirschi, Shu-pen (Ben) Ho, F. Hrbacek, Daan Hubert, Dale F. Hurst, Antje Inness, K. Isaksen, Viju O. John, Philip D. Jones, Robert Junod, J. W. Kaiser, V. Kaufmann, A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Elizabeth C. Kent, R. Kidd, Hyungjun Kim, Z. Kipling, A. Koppa, B. M. Kraemer, D. P. Kratz, Xin Lan, Kathleen O. Lantz, D. Lavers, Norman G. Loeb, Diego Loyola, R. Madelon, Michael Mayer, M. F. McCabe, Tim R. McVicar, Carl A. Mears, Christopher J. Merchant, Diego G. Miralles, L. Moesinger, Stephen A. Montzka, Colin Morice, L. Mosinger, Jens Muhle, Julien P. Nicolas, Jeannette Noetzli, Ben Noll, J. O'Keefe, Tim J. Osborn, T. Park, A. J. Pasik, C. Pellet, Maury S. Pelto, S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, G. Petron, Coda Phillips, S. Po-Chedley, L. Polvani, W. Preimesberger, D. G. Rains, W. J. Randel, Nick A. Rayner, Samuel Remy, L. Ricciardulli, A. D. Richardson, David A. Robinson, Matthew Rodell, N. J. Rodriguez-Fernandez, K. H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, A. Rozanov, T. Rutishauser, Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, P. Sawaengphokhai, T. Scanlon, Verena Schenzinger, R. W. Schlegel, S. Sharma, Lei Shi, Adrian J. Simmons, Carolina Siso, Sharon L. Smith, B. J. Soden, Viktoria Sofieva, T. H. Sparks, Paul W. Stackhouse, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Martin Stengel, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, Sunny Sun-Mack, P. Tans, S. J. Thackeray, E. Thibert, D. Tokuda, Kleareti Tourpali, Mari R. Tye, Ronald van der A, Robin van der Schalie, Gerard van der Schrier, M. van der Vliet, Guido R. van der Werf, A. Vance, Jean-Paul Vernier, Isaac J. Vimont, Holger Vomel, Russell S. Vose, Ray Wang, Markus Weber, David Wiese, Anne C. Wilber, Jeanette D. Wild, Takmeng Wong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xinjia Zhou, Xungang Yin, Guangyu Zhao, Lin Zhao, Jerry R. Ziemke, Markus Ziese, R. M. Zotta
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Albert Osso, Richard P. Allan, Ed Hawkins, Len Shaffrey, Douglas Maraun
Summary: Human society and natural systems are adapted to local climate mean and variability. Analysis reveals that many areas in Europe have already experienced significant changes in climate extremes, particularly in extreme temperatures, winter precipitation, and summer drought conditions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Philip M. Craig, Richard P. Allan
Summary: Teleconnection patterns play a significant role in influencing the weather and agriculture in Europe, with the NAO and EA patterns dominating the onset of growing season and the EA and SCA patterns showing a north/south split in relation to growing season rainfall.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chunlei Liu, Yazhu Yang, Xiaoqing Liao, Ning Cao, Jimmy Liu, Niansen Ou, Richard P. Allan, Liang Jin, Ni Chen, Rong Zheng
Summary: The change in ocean net surface heat flux is crucial for the climate system, especially in the North Atlantic. However, there is a large difference in simulated surface heat fluxes due to poorly represented dynamic processes. This study compares various datasets and models to find that increasing model resolution can improve the surface heat flux and heat transport in the North Atlantic.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Caroline M. Wainwright, Richard P. Allan, Emily Black
Summary: The study identifies global changes in dry-spell characteristics that are consistent with future projections and are driven by common physical factors. It is found that longer dry spells in the dry season can increase vegetation water stress and negatively impact perennial vegetation. The observed lengthening of dry season dry spells over South America and southern Africa, and the shortening over West Africa, are in line with projected changes under the intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
D. Pena-Angulo, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Dominguez-Castro, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, C. Murphy, J. Hannaford, R. P. Allan, Y. Tramblay, F. Reig-Gracia, A. El Kenawy
Summary: This study presents a new data set of gauged streamflow for Europe and assesses changes in the characteristics of hydrological droughts across different regions. Results reveal complex spatial patterns of hydrological droughts in Europe over the past six decades, with more frequent and severe droughts in southern and central Europe and opposite trends in northern Europe.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Shereif H. Mahmoud, Thian Yew Gan, Richard P. Allan, Jianfeng Li, Chris Funk
Summary: This study reveals the driving mechanisms behind droughts and hydroclimate variations in the Nile River Basin. The results show that climate warming, ENSO, and IOD have significantly contributed to the increased aridity in NRB, with IOD playing a more important role. Furthermore, changes in atmospheric circulations have also resulted in drier conditions in NRB.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Richard P. Allan, Kate M. Willett, Viju O. John, Tim Trent
Summary: Global-scale changes in water vapor and its response to surface temperature variability since 1979 were evaluated using a range of observations and simulations. The results show that global water vapor has increased, but coupled simulations overestimate the changes. However, the response of water vapor to surface temperature variability is consistent across different data sets.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Jonathan M. Gregory, Yue Dong, Kyle C. Armour, David Paynter, Pu Lin, Angshuman Modak, Thorsten Mauritsen, Jason N. S. Cole, Brian Medeiros, James J. Benedict, Herve Douville, Romain Roehrig, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Hideaki Kawai, Tomoo Ogura, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Richard P. Allan, Chunlei Liu
Summary: The pattern of sea-surface temperature change has a significant impact on radiative feedback. The Earth experienced warming with feedbacks consistent with long-term climate sensitivity feedbacks over the historical record. However, unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs and cooling in the Southern Ocean post 1980 led to climate feedback becoming uncorrelated with expected long-term CO2 increase, indicating lower climate sensitivity.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Paul I. Palmer, Caroline M. Wainwright, Bo Dong, Ross I. Maidment, Kevin G. Wheeler, Nicola Gedney, Jonathan E. Hickman, Nima Madani, Sonja S. Folwell, Gamal Abdo, Richard P. Allan, Emily C. L. Black, Liang Feng, Masilin Gudoshava, Keith Haines, Chris Huntingford, Mary Kilavi, Mark F. Lunt, Ahmed Shaaban, Andrew G. Turner
Summary: Eastern Africa experiences bimodal rainfall with long rains and short rains, and changes in rainfall have significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Teleconnections like El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole play a major role in interannual variability. The long rains have been getting drier while the short rains have become wetter. These patterns affect flooding, droughts, food and energy systems, diseases, and ecosystem stability. Climate projections suggest that by 2030-2040, the short rains will deliver more rainfall than the long rains, posing challenges for agriculture and public health emergencies. Mitigation efforts should focus on agriculture, clean water, medical and emergency infrastructure, and adaptation strategies.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Richard P. Allan
Summary: Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, leading to changes in the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and the surface. Monitoring and understanding the changes in precipitation and evaporation patterns across the globe are crucial due to their impact on societies and ecosystems. This study analyzes observation-based datasets and climate model experiments to diagnose the changes in annual maximum and minimum precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) globally over land and ocean from 1950 to 2100. The findings show increases in P-E maximum and decreases in P-E minimum, indicating a more variable and extreme water cycle in the future.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Albert Osso, Philip Craig, Richard P. Allan
Summary: The CMIP6 projections are the foundation of our latest understanding of the climate response to human-induced forcing, but there is still significant uncertainty, especially at the regional level. To constrain this uncertainty, we compared historical climate change signals from CMIP6 models with observations, and found divergences between the models and the observations, as well as among different observations. We also identified that these differences are associated with atmospheric circulation responses and revealed potential relationships between model signals and climatological biases.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Se-Yong Song, Sang-Wook Yeh, Richard P. Allan, Shang-Ping Xie, Soon-Il An, Hyo-Seok Park
Summary: Climate sensitivity is a key factor controlling the hysteresis behavior of global precipitation, and this hysteresis effect is more pronounced in Earth System Models with high climate sensitivity. Narrowing the uncertainty of climate sensitivity helps improve the projections of the global hydrological cycle.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Miniere, Flora Gues, Francisco Jose Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michael Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena Garcia-Garcia, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Ines Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanak Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, Michael Zemp
Summary: The Earth climate system is experiencing an energy imbalance, with continuous heat accumulation over the past decades. The majority of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by land, atmosphere, and the cryosphere. The Earth energy imbalance is a fundamental indicator of global climate change and should be incorporated into climate monitoring efforts.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ranjini Swaminathan, Robert J. Parker, Colin G. Jones, Richard P. Allan, Tristan Quaife, Douglas I. Kelley, Lee de Mora, Jeremy Walton
Summary: The study investigates the likelihood of achieving the temperature targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement. It finds that most models project global warming beyond 2 degrees C by the end of the century, except for the lowest emission scenarios. The study also analyzes the regional and seasonal variations in climate at different warming levels, and identifies significant climate changes emerging by midcentury.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
