期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
卷 58, 期 6, 页码 1031-1037出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0688-1
关键词
Meteorological factors; Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; Time series analysis; Jiaonan
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [81202176, 81273139]
- National Major Research Program of China [2012CB955500]
- Shangdong Provincial Natural Science Foundation [ZR2010HM126]
This study examined the effect of meteorological factors on the occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) using a generalized additive model with penalized smoothing splines in Jiaonan, China, from 2006 to 2011. The dose-response relationship was first examined, and then the association between daily meteorological variables and HFRS occurrence was investigated according to the dose-response curves. There were two linear segments in the temperature-HFRS relationship curve. When daily temperature was lower than 17 A degrees C, a positive association was found [with excessive risk (ER) for 1 A degrees C increase on the current day being 2.56 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.36 % to 4.80 %]. An inverse association was found when daily temperature was higher than 17 A degrees C [ER for 1 A degrees C increase on the current day was -12.82 % (95 % CI: -17.51 % to -7.85 %)]. Inverse associations were observed for relative humidity [ER for 1 % increase on lag day 4 was -1.21 % (95 % CI: -1.63 % to -0.79 %)] and rainfall [ER for 1 mm increase on lag day 1 was -2.20 % (95 % CI: -3.56 % to -0.82 %)]. Meteorological factors might be important predictor of HFRS epidemics in Jiaonan County.
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