Article
Environmental Sciences
Sheetabh Gaurav, Sebastian Egli, Boris Thies, Joerg Bendix
Summary: In this study, a machine learning-based approach is used to generate a consistent dataset by harmonizing Meteosat First Generation (MFG) and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite datasets (1991-2020). The synthesized data shows a good match with the original data, with small mean absolute errors. This harmonized dataset can be used to analyze and generate a long-term time series of fog and low stratus (FLS) occurrences.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wassila M. Thiaw, Endalkachew Bekele, Sarah N. Diouf, David G. Dewitt, Ousmane Ndiaye, Marie Khemesse Ngom Ndiaye, Papa Ngor Ndiaye, Nar Diene, Mariama Diouf, Anta Diaw, Siga Diop, Fanding Badj, Abdoulaye Diouf
Summary: This paper highlights the impact of heatwaves on human health and the gap in monitoring and forecasting heatwaves in Africa. It describes NOAA's role in enabling heat-health early warning in Africa, focusing on providing real-time heat wave forecasting and capacity development.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Marine
Jean-Marc Guarini, Shawn Hinz, Jennifer Coston-Guarini
Summary: This article introduces a new biophysical model-based early warning system for assessing shellfish stock condition and detecting signs of physiological dysfunction. The system utilizes the complete observed dynamics within successive time intervals, as well as compares simulated data with actual measurements for disturbance assessment.
JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Food Science & Technology
David Backer, Trey Billing
Summary: The overall accuracy of FEWS NET projections for 25 African countries from 2009-2020 is 84%, but it drops sharply with increasing food insecurity, skewing towards over-projection. Variations in humanitarian responses, climate, and conflict appear to be connected to these patterns. The study highlights FEWS NET's performance in anticipating food insecurity in fragile conditions and suggests improvements through ongoing validation, deeper scrutiny of reliability-affecting factors, increased transparency, and informed usage.
GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY-AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
O. Bruzzone, M. H. Easdale
Summary: The use of satellite-derived vegetation indices time series is important for land degradation assessment and monitoring. However, there is a lack of information on future vegetation dynamics. Trend-cycle as an indicator can provide information on long-term movements and changes in direction, helping to estimate the direction and speed of change in vegetation productivity cycles.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kingsley K. Kumah, Joost C. B. Hoedjes, Noam David, Ben H. P. Maathuis, H. Oliver Gao, Bob Z. Su
Summary: This study investigated a new method using Meteosat Second Generation satellite data to improve rainfall estimates of commercial microwave links, showing that the MSG technique provides more robust estimates compared to conventional techniques, especially for convective rain events with spatial variability.
Article
Economics
Erindi Allaj, Simona Sanfelici
Summary: Financial crises prediction is crucial in finance, and an efficient Early Warning System (EWS) can help prevent significant losses. This study proposes different EWSs based on logit regression and Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) using realized variance (RV) and/or price-volatility feedback rate. The findings suggest that incorporating the price-volatility feedback rate improves the prediction accuracy of future price losses.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Teboho E. Masupha, Mokhele E. Moeletsi, Mitsuru Tsubo
Summary: This review examines the status quo of agricultural drought early warning systems in South Africa and explores the potential of applying key lessons from established systems worldwide. Various characteristics of these systems were identified, with the most common being the ability to forecast impending drought, processing functionalities, and impact assessments. The study recommends the use of innovative technologies to translate hazards into impacts, provide value-added contingency plans, and enhance stakeholder communication for further advancements.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Agnes Begue, Simon Madec, Louise Lemettais, Louise Leroux, Roberto Interdonato, Inbal Becker-Reshef, Brian Barker, Christina Justice, Herve Kerdiles, Michele Meroni
Summary: The GEOGLAM crop monitor for early warning is based on the integration of regional systems' crop condition assessments. Discrepancies between these assessments can be attributed to interpretation of vegetation and climate data, and this article argues that discrepancies related to the data must also be considered. An experiment comparing four operational crop monitoring systems in West Africa was conducted, revealing relatively low per-pixel similarity and indicating that preprocessing methods, especially the choice of reference period, are the main reasons for discrepancies. Negative alarm agreement maps can serve as a useful tool for early warning with synthesized information and confidence levels.
IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Lucas Andrigo Maure, Milena Fiuza Diniz, Marco Tulio Pacheco Coelho, Marina P. Souza de Oliveira, Milton Cezar Ribeiro, Fernando Rodrigues da Silva, Erica Hasui
Summary: This study investigated the factors influencing the resilience and stability of early second-growth forests in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. The results showed that resilience was mainly affected by isothermality and precipitation, while stability was mainly influenced by bedrock occurrence and precipitation seasonality. The prediction maps revealed a spatial pattern of increasing resilience and stability from north to south. The findings can guide forest restoration efforts and help achieve restoration commitments in the Atlantic Forest.
REMOTE SENSING IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
(2022)
Article
Biology
Fabian Dablander, Hans Heesterbeek, Denny Borsboom, John M. Drake
Summary: This study aims to investigate whether early warning indicators based on critical slowing down could reliably predict the emergence of the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe. Contrary to theoretical predictions, the study found that these indicators generally decreased rather than increased prior to the second wave. Simulation results showed that the lack of timescale separation was expected during the second wave of the European COVID-19 epidemic.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ma Luisa Buchaillot, Jill Cairns, Esnath Hamadziripi, Kenneth Wilson, David Hughes, John Chelal, Peter McCloskey, Annalyse Kehs, Nicholas Clinton, Jose Luis Araus, Shawn C. Kefauver
Summary: This study developed and tested a monitoring algorithm based on satellite data to detect the loss of green leaf biomass caused by the fall armyworm during maize vegetative growth. The algorithm was validated using mobile app data and field validation campaigns. The study suggests that satellite monitoring of small-scale farmer fields using NDVI anomaly analysis is possible.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Li Xu, Denis Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, Jin Wang
Summary: Complex systems often experience sudden regime shifts, known as critical transitions. Identifying warning signals for these transitions early enough to prevent them is challenging. In this study, we use landscape-flux theory to quantify the stability of ecological systems and provide early warning signals based on average flux, entropy production rate, non-equilibrium free energy, and time irreversibility. Our proposed method, demonstrated using a shallow lake model, can potentially predict critical transitions earlier than conventional methods, contributing to the resilience assessment of various ecological systems.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Karyn M. Tabor, Margaret B. Holland
Summary: The development of existing conservation early warning and alert systems is increasingly thriving, however, their evaluation lacks systematics and requires more research quantifying environmental and socioeconomic benefits. To assist practitioners, funders and policymakers in choosing the appropriate tool for application, the systems have been classified and summarized, emphasizing the best practices for enhancing system adoption and use.
REMOTE SENSING IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
(2021)
Review
Economics
Espen Geelmuyden Rod, Tim Gasste, Havard Hegre
Summary: This article reviews and compares conflict early warning systems in terms of transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review highlights the need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, as well as significant variations in key parameters across systems and overlaps in high-risk countries. The article suggests developing standards and platforms to promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation, in order to enhance knowledge proliferation and system development for mitigating and preventing political violence.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2024)
Letter
Biodiversity Conservation
Fangli Wei, Shuai Wang, Bojie Fu, Martin Brandt, Naiqing Pan, Cong Wang, Rasmus Fensholt
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhongxiang Fang, Martin Brandt, Lanhui Wang, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: Plant phenology provides crucial information on the seasonal dynamics of plants, with changes reflecting the impact of climate change and human management on the biosphere. This study focuses on the impact of changes in tree cover on satellite observed land surface phenology globally over the past three decades, revealing that areas where tree cover increased experienced an extension of the growing season length in 36.6% of cases, compared to only 20.1% in areas with decreased tree cover. Additionally, the ratio between tree cover and short vegetation cover plays a role in influencing the length of the growing season, with denser tree cover showing a more pronounced extension (especially in boreal forests).
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tingting Lu, Martin Brandt, Xiaoye Tong, Pierre Hiernaux, Louise Leroux, Babacar Ndao, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: Multi-purpose Faidherbia albida trees play a vital role in agroforestry parklands in West Africa by providing resources and supporting crop irrigation. This study used satellite systems and computational methods to classify and identify Faidherbia albida trees. The researchers found that specific variables during the dry season were most important for accurate classification. Comparisons with a theoretical model showed significant differences in species distribution. The distribution maps provided by this study are crucial for managing farmlands in drylands and optimizing economic and ecological services.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Xiaoxin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Xiaowei Tong, Philippe Ciais, Yuemin Yue, Xiangming Xiao, Wenmin Zhang, Kelin Wang, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: This study tests the hypothesis that urbanization and carbon neutrality are not mutually exclusive, and that sustainably managed urbanization could increase carbon sequestration. The results show that urban greening compensates for initial carbon losses caused by urban expansion, and rural areas experiencing depopulation coincide with extensive aboveground carbon sinks. However, the capacity for carbon removal by forests is limited, and reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning is necessary to achieve carbon neutrality.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2022)
Correction
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
D. Laouali, C. Delon, M. Adon, O. Ndiaye, I. Saneh, E. Gardrat, M. Dias-Alves, T. Tagesson, R. Fensholt, C. Galy-Lacaux
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Yunyu Tian, Nandin-Erdene Tsendbazar, Eveline van Leeuwen, Rasmus Fensholt, Martin Herold
Summary: This study is the first global attempt to characterize the complexity of urbanization, showing significant variations across regions and times. It found that increased population density and built-up structure were dominant in Asia and Africa, while Europe and North America exhibited steady urbanization combined with greening.
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Qian Li, Yuemin Yue, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, Zhengchao Chen, Xiaowei Tong, Kelin Wang, Jingyi Chang, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: Mapping forests with low cost high-resolution satellite images based on crown structure allows for accurate characterization of forest classes, supporting sustainable forest management and restoration activities.
REMOTE SENSING IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Yanbiao Xi, Qingjiu Tian, Wenmin Zhang, Zhichao Zhang, Xiaoye Tong, Martin Brandt, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: Understory vegetation is important for forest ecosystems, but there is a lack of methods for large-scale and spatially continuous estimation of understory vegetation density. This study developed an effective approach using remote sensing data and image metrics to map understory vegetation density, showing potential for improving terrestrial carbon storage estimation and understanding forest ecosystem processes across larger areas.
GISCIENCE & REMOTE SENSING
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Christin Abel, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Torbern Tagesson, Stephanie Horion, Rasmus Fensholt
Summary: Increasing aridity due to global climate change has significant impacts on dryland ecosystems. We analyzed aridity trends from 2000 to 2020 and found that 44.5% of areas are getting drier, 31.6% are getting wetter, and 23.8% show no change. Ecosystem responses to aridity trends vary depending on the presence of water-related stress.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Wenmin Zhang, Guy Schurgers, Josep Penuelas, Rasmus Fensholt, Hui Yang, Jing Tang, Xiaowei Tong, Philippe Ciais, Martin Brandt
Summary: The impact of tropical temperature fluctuations on the growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) is no longer significant in recent decades. This is primarily due to increased precipitation, which has weakened the link between the carbon cycle and tropical temperature variation.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hui Yang, Philippe Ciais, Frederic Frappart, Xiaojun Li, Martin Brandt, Rasmus Fensholt, Lei Fan, Sassan Saatchi, Simon Besnard, Zhu Deng, Simon Bowring, Jean-Pierre Wigneron
Summary: Changes in terrestrial carbon storage under environmental and land-use changes are crucial for regional and global carbon budgets. This study used L-band microwave vegetation optical depth to generate global maps of annual live vegetation biomass, and found that boreal and temperate forests contribute the most to the global carbon sink, while wet tropical forests serve as small carbon sources. Additionally, the study revealed that tropical deforested and degraded old-growth forests are nearly carbon neutral, while young and middle-aged forests in temperate and boreal regions are the largest sinks.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaowei Tong, Martin Brandt, Yuemin Yue, Xiaoxin Zhang, Rasmus Fensholt, Philippe Ciais, Kelin Wang, Siyu Liu, Wenmin Zhang, Chen Mao, Martin Rudbeck Jepsen
Summary: Using high-resolution satellite data from 1986 to 2020, our analysis reveals the complex spatiotemporal patterns of southern China's forest transition. We find that the surge in forest area around 2010 is due to the growth of trees planted after 2000, which formed dense forests about a decade later. Our study documents the densification and expansion of forests in a country that had been largely deforested three decades ago.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Soren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, Julian Koch
Summary: Despite limited knowledge of irrigation water usage, the implementation of a novel ensemble methodology combining different products has successfully estimated the precision of irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins. The study found that the net irrigation amounts to 233 mm yr(-1) (74 km3 yr(-1)) in the Indus Basin and 101 mm yr(-1) (67 km3 yr(-1)) in the Ganges Basin. The research also highlighted the robustness of the applied multi-model calibration approach and the importance of reducing uncertainty in evapotranspiration for accurate irrigation quantification.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andrew T. Prata, Roy G. Grainger, Isabelle A. Taylor, Adam C. Povey, Simon R. Proud, Caroline A. Poulsen
Summary: This study applies the ORAC algorithm to retrieve volcanic ash cloud properties from satellite measurements, such as cloud-top height, effective radius, optical depth, and mass loading. It demonstrates improvements in thermal infrared volcanic ash retrievals, including noise treatment, multi-layer cloud scenarios, height distinction, and retrieval of a wider range of effective radii sizes. The results reveal the mass changes, characteristics of different ash layers, and temporal evolution of ash cloud concentrations. These findings are crucial for aviation safety and dust dispersion model validation.
ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Daniel Robbins, Caroline Poulsen, Steven Siems, Simon Proud
Summary: Cloud masking is an important step in retrieving geophysical properties from satellite data. This paper presents a cloud mask created using machine learning for Himawari-8 and compares its performance to other methods. The results show that the machine learning-based cloud mask performs better in identifying non-cloud pixels and distinguishing thick aerosol plumes from clouds.
ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES
(2022)
