Intrastock differences in maturation schedules of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua

Differences in maturation schedules from three subpopulations of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) were examined using the demographic probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN) approach. Declines in maturation probability with size and age were evident within the North Sea cod stock, but the magnitude of decline differed among subpopulations. The difference in the rate of decline led to significant spatial differences in recent times. Changes in maturation probability could not be explained by colonization from adjacent regions indicating a local response to conditions. The greatest decline in maturation probability followed the near collapse of regional spawning biomass during the 1980s and 1990s. A new methodology was developed to integrate the effects of temperature and competitive biomass into the estimation of the PMRN. Temperature had a positive effect on maturation probability, but could only partially explain the decreasing trend in PMRN midpoints. Consequently, regional selection for early maturing genotypes provides the most parsimonious explanation for the declines in maturation probability observed. The difference in maturation probability among North Sea cod subpopulations, and the additive contribution of temperature to the estimation of change, underscores the need to account for population structuring and to incorporate temperature as a covariate in future applications of the PMRN.