A conceptual approach for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater and related surface waters in cold regions (Finland)

A literature review of the impacts of anticipated climate change on unconfined aquifers is presented, along with a conceptual framework for evaluating the complex responses of surface and subsurface hydrology to climate variables in cold regions. The framework offers a way to conceptualize how changes in one component of the system may impact another by delineating the relationships among climate drivers, hydrological responses, and groundwater responses in a straight-forward manner. The model is elaborated in the context of shallow unconfined aquifers in the boreal environment of Finland. In cold conditions, climate change is expected to reduce snow cover and soil frost and increase winter floods. The annual surface water level maximum will occur earlier in spring, and water levels will decrease in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The maximum recharge and groundwater level are expected to occur earlier in the year. Lower groundwater levels are expected in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The flow regimes between shallow unconfined aquifers and surface water may change, affecting water quantity and quality in the surface and groundwater systems.