Land-Use Microsimulation Model for Livelihood Diversification After the 2010 Merapi Volcano Eruptions

Authors

Martin Garcia-Fry¹ , Osamu Murao² , Syamsul Bachri³ , Luis Moya⁴

1. Tohoku University
2. International Research Institute of Disaster Science
3. Malang University
4. Pontifical Catholic University of Lima

Conference / event

The 9th Joint Seminar on Civil Infrastructures - ICUS, December 2020 (Virtual)

Poster summary

After the 2010 Merapi volcano eruptions, people were relocated to semi-urban settlements away from their livelihoods and with few options for diversification. Post-disaster resettlement is dependent on people’s access to employment as a means for short- and long-term recovery. This study evaluates post-disaster mobility, aiming to clarify whether a land-use network with distributed livelihood options can complement rural labor in a recovery scenario. In 2019, we collected travel routine and sociodemographic data in the Sleman Regency of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Then, the Operational Land Use and Transport Microsimulation (OLUTM) model was performed to forecast a future scenario and grasp livelihood changes. As a result, 63% of the livelihood diversifications were sought by middle-aged farmers with risk-taking behaviors and upper-median incomes. They ventured home businesses that contributed to the 28% reduction of CO2 emissions and 30% travel utility savings. A robust microsimulation model was rendered for post-disaster recovery planning and policy-driven simulations.

Keywords

Rural Studies, Peri-Urban, Land Use, Microsimulation

Research areas

Environmental Sciences, Humanities and Social Sciences, Architecture, Design and Urban Planning, Public Policy and International Affairs, Computer and Information Science

References

No data provided

Funding

No data provided

Supplemental files

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Additional information

Competing interests

No competing interests were disclosed.

Data availability statement

The datasets generated during and / or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Creative Commons license

Copyright © 2022 Garcia-Fry et al. This is an open access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.